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Friday March 9, 2007 - 11:19:52 GMT
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Forex Market Update - US Job Market Report is Key

Published: Mar. 09 2007, 09:53 GMT

US Job Market Report is Key
ECB hiked rates and BOE kept rates fixed as we expected yesterday. Today the key event will be at 13:30GMT where the February US Job Report will be released. We are looking for weak Nonfarm Payrolls.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
USD
The dollar remains range bound ahead of the US Non-farm payrolls. The ADP reading showed 57K on Wednesday, but has proven in the past now to be as reliable as their back testing showed. We will put like this. A reading below is dollar bearish and a reading above 150K is dollar bullish and we will look to trade accordingly. For EURUSD we still need to see a break above 1.3213 which would give scope for a test of 1.3260-95 which is our preferred scenario below 80K for NFP. Wednesday's Fed Beige Book showed most districts report modest economic expansion, price pressures little changed overall; housing market remained weak; pay increases generally moderate overall; most districts showing expansion in labor market. most districts reported moderate growth, but several "noted some slowing". This is a softer tone than the last (Jan 17) Beige Book.

GBP
BoE left rates unchanged yesterday as expected, but the pound sold-off as there was market rumors ahead of the announcement that a hike was possible as MPC was looking to keep inflated house prices in check. But we were not surprised as we saw the inflation target for 2008 has been downgraded to 2.0%. Could suggest that MPC have some sort of idea of what the next CPI reading coming out of the UK is going to be. Earlier today, the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production disappointed the market, suggesting the a lower GBP will be seen.


Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.


Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.3149 @ 09:51 GMT)
Support:
1. 1.3050 fibo support.
2. 1.2870 lows from January 07.
3. 1.2765 wave support and start of the Nov. 06 uptrend.
Resistance:
1. 1.3170 - fibo support.
2. 1.3370 - Prior highs.

Resist.
1.3277
1.3211
1.3172
1.3149
1.3105
1.3078
1.3011
Support

Quoted:
09 Mar 07
09:51 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.9289 @ 09:51 GMT)
Support:
1. 1.9260 - base support in Jan. 07.
2. 1.9180 - old top from mid Nov. 06.
3. 1.9075 - brake out level from Nov. 06.

Resistance:
1. 1.9410
2. 1.9680 - resistance at the current wave
3. 1.9916 highs from 07.

Resist.
1.9468
1.9385
1.9333
1.9289
1.9251
1.9220
1.9137
Support

Quoted:
09 Mar 07
09:51 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (117.46 @ 09:51 GMT)
Support:
1. 115.15 - current wave low.
2. 114.53
3. 114.00
Resistance:
1. 117.54 - 200 MA
2. 117.89
3. 118.40

Resist.
120.61
118.67
117.92
117.46
115.98
114.80
112.86
Support

Quoted:
09 Mar 07
09:51 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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