Share This Story
Forex Market Update - US Job Market Report is Key
Published: Mar. 09 2007, 09:53 GMT
US Job Market Report is Key
ECB hiked rates and BOE kept rates fixed as we expected yesterday. Today the key event will be at 13:30GMT where the February US Job Report will be released. We are looking for weak Nonfarm Payrolls.
MAJOR HEADLINES â€“ PREVIOUS SESSION
The dollar remains range bound ahead of the US Non-farm payrolls. The ADP reading showed 57K on Wednesday, but has proven in the past now to be as reliable as their back testing showed. We will put like this. A reading below is dollar bearish and a reading above 150K is dollar bullish and we will look to trade accordingly. For EURUSD we still need to see a break above 1.3213 which would give scope for a test of 1.3260-95 which is our preferred scenario below 80K for NFP. Wednesday's Fed Beige Book showed most districts report modest economic expansion, price pressures little changed overall; housing market remained weak; pay increases generally moderate overall; most districts showing expansion in labor market. most districts reported moderate growth, but several "noted some slowing". This is a softer tone than the last (Jan 17) Beige Book.
BoE left rates unchanged yesterday as expected, but the pound sold-off as there was market rumors ahead of the announcement that a hike was possible as MPC was looking to keep inflated house prices in check. But we were not surprised as we saw the inflation target for 2008 has been downgraded to 2.0%. Could suggest that MPC have some sort of idea of what the next CPI reading coming out of the UK is going to be. Earlier today, the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production disappointed the market, suggesting the a lower GBP will be seen.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrixâ€™s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
EURUSD (1.3149 @ 09:51 GMT)
1. 1.3050 fibo support.
2. 1.2870 lows from January 07.
3. 1.2765 wave support and start of the Nov. 06 uptrend.
1. 1.3170 - fibo support.
2. 1.3370 - Prior highs.
09 Mar 07
British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.9289 @ 09:51 GMT)
1. 1.9260 - base support in Jan. 07.
2. 1.9180 - old top from mid Nov. 06.
3. 1.9075 - brake out level from Nov. 06.
2. 1.9680 - resistance at the current wave
3. 1.9916 highs from 07.
09 Mar 07
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (117.46 @ 09:51 GMT)
1. 115.15 - current wave low.
1. 117.54 - 200 MA
09 Mar 07
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."