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Friday March 9, 2007 - 12:52:53 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 09-Mar-2007....1250 GMT

Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below

USD-CHF @ 1.2270/74.....Bullish while above 1.2250
R: 1.2300-13 / 1.2338
S: 1.2260-50 / 1.2230 / 1.2204-00
USD-CHF has traded well during the day and the pair is maintaining above its strong Support of 1.2250-60. Now that level would again provide Support later in the day and the pair remains biddish while that maintains. While that holds there are chances that the pair may again test 1.2300 later on in the day. If that is crossed then there may be a rally towards 1.2338, the statistically projected Max High for the day. Note there is a trendline Resistance at 1.2313, on the 4-Hourly candles joining the highs of 1.2245 (28-Feb) and 1.2264 (02-Mar).
On the downside the Support is at 1.2260 and then at 1.2230. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.2204.

Note the US Trade Balance would be declared at 13:30 GMT. See chart at

GBP-USD @ 1.9316/21......Long term and intra-day

R: 1.9360 / 1.9386
S: 1.9290 / 1.9260 / 1.9217
GBP-USD declined to a low of 1.9266 during the day but the pair bounced back again as the pair is continuously trading within its range of 1.9260 – 1.9360, after the sharp fall Monday morning. Now there may be volatility later on in the day as the US NFP and US Trade Balance are coming out at 13:30 GMT.
For today the Resistance is at 1.9360 and then at 1.9386, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 1.9290 and then at 1.9260, below which a sharp fall may be expected possibly towards 1.9217, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. We would recommend selling on a rally to 1.9360 with a stop at 1.9420 as an intraday trade targeting 1.9260.

However looking at the longer term, the BOE has declined to raise rates yesterday and it is time to consider chances that rates might not go up for some more time and may stabilize instead. If you take a look at the GBP Libor charts (please click on you can perceive a trend Resistance near the last peak on the 12-mth rate when you look at the movement since 1999.

Decreasing chances of interest rate increases in the UK could be damaging for the Pound in the medium/ long term. If you look at the Monthly chart (please click on you will see that a top is being formed already. A fall below 1.91 in the medium term, if seen, could cause pain and bring the market down towards 1.89 enroute to 1.85.

AUD-USD @ 0.7787/91....Bullish bias
R: 0.7820-23 / 0.7840
S: 0.7775-80 / 0.7750-49
AUD-USD had a slight dip during the day to a low of 0.7781 and has bounced back. It unfortunately missed our buy order by a few pips. However that dip and the subsequent rally shows that the pair is seeing good buying on dips and the bullish bias remains. Now the pair may move on towards 0.7840 over today or Monday. However in the interim the Resistance is at 0.7823, which is the statistically projected Max High for the day. The 200-MA on the 4-Hourly is at 0.7805.
On the downside the Support is at 0.7775-80. If that is broken (unexpected) then there could be a fall towards 0.7750-49, the latter being the statistically projected Max Low for the day. The bias for the day is bullish and we would like to buy a dip.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 20K at 0.7773, SL 0.7739, TP 0.7900

Happy Trading!


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