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Friday March 9, 2007 - 15:29:19 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (9 March 2007)



The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3085 level and was capped around the $1.3160 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from $1.2910 to $1.3255. Data released in the U.S. today saw February non-farm payrolls climb 97,000 last month while December’s and January’s tallies were upwardly revised by a collective 55,000 jobs. The February unemployment rate ticked down to 4.5% from 4.6% and average hourly earnings climbed +0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y. Federal Reserve policymakers will likely view the U.S. economy as being closer to full employment and will not be comfortable with the elevated level of wage growth. Many economists believe today’s non-farm payrolls data will be upwardly revised on account of poor weather in parts of the U.S. during February that may have led to a decline of 62,000 construction jobs reported last month. Other data released in the U.S. today saw the January trade deficit narrow to –US$ 59.12 billion from –US$ 62 billion in December. In eurozone news, European Central Bank member Weber reiterated the ECB’s monetary policy remains on the “accommodative side” even after yesterday’s +25bps monetary tightening. Many traders believe the ECB is now on pause after yesterday’s move because ECB President Trichet indicated rates are “moderate” as opposed to “low.” Data released in the eurozone today saw Germany’s trade surplus rise to €16.2 billion from an upwardly revised €11.1 billion in December while Germany’s February wholesale price index gained 0.4% m/m and 3.0% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3045 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥118.35 level and was supported around the ¥117.05 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 50% retracement of the move from ¥114.45 to ¥122.15. Data released in Japan today saw January core machinery orders up 3.9% m/m and 2.6% y/y, exceeding forecasts, and these data suggest that capital investment remains firm. Fiscal year-end repatriation of overseas assets to Japan will likely continue for a couple of weeks at which time many dealers believe the pair will continue its upward climb. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.43% to close at ¥17,164.04. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥116.65 level. The euro climbed higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥155.00 figure and was supported around the ¥153.80 level. The British pound and Swiss franc gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥228.35 and ¥95.85 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.7745 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.7400.


The British pound climbed higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9340 level and was supported around the $1.9265 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.8515 to $1.9845. Data released in the U.K. today saw January manufacturing output fall 0.2% m/m, defying expectations of an expansion. Also, industrial product prices were up 0.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y. Many traders believe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will deliver a +25bps monetary tightening next month. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9220 level. The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6775 level and was capped around the ₤0.6820 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2350 level and was supported around the CHF 1.2255 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 76.4% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2435 to CHF 1.2105. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2380 level. The euro and British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6180 and CHF 2.3855 levels, respectively.

A$

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.7815 level and was supported around the $0.7765 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from $0.7980 to $0.7695. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7755 level.


C$

The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1730 level and was capped around the C$ 1.1810 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just above the 38.2% retracement of the move from C$ 1.1560 to C$ 1.1825. Data released in Canada today saw the February unemployment rate fall to 6.1% from 6.2% in January as 14,000 new jobs were created. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the C$ 1.1695 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 658.10 level and was supported around the $649.40 level. Global equity markets may continue to dictate movements in the price of gold as some traders have been forced to liquidate long gold positions to compensate for losses in the equity markets. Silver came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested bids around the $12.80 level and was capped around the $13.12 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for April delivery tested bids around the US$ 60.99 level and were capped around the $61.79 level. Some profit-taking was seen as traders closed some long positions built up after U.S. weekly energy inventories data evidenced draws in U.S. crude stocks and gasoline supplies. OPEC will convene on 15 March in Vienna and is not expected to alter output levels at that time. Geopolitical risks including those involving Iran continue to loom over the market.

 

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