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Monday March 12, 2007 - 11:46:28 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:25 EST

Key Points
• USD-JPY lower but currently holding above 118.00.
• EUR-USD looking at test of 1.3185 – positional overhang remains in place.
• UK PPI stronger than expected.
Market Outlook

The USD has given up some of the gains seen against the JPY on Friday, although some optimism will remain in place about upside today if 118.00 can hold. Below there would suggest some downside risk. Sentiment against the JPY will continue to be influenced by global markets in the short-term and while we still expect the JPY to remain weak over coming months, another period of corrective strength may be required in the interim. The same applies to global markets in general. However, the latest IMM positioning data does show a sizeable adjustment in prior short JPY positioning and this may spur hopes that USD-JPY will hold above the 114.60 lows of December. Latest data showed a sharp fall in spec net long USD-JPY positioning to 62,886 contracts from the 114,626 seen the previous week. Last week’s low on USD-JPY was seen on Monday, so with USD-JPY rising later in the week, net USD-JPY longs have probably been rebuilt a little since then.

EUR-USD has managed to stabilise in Asia and Europe, although the 1.3185 resistance level needs to be taken out to suggest further upside. The positional backdrop remains challenging for EUR-USD. As of last Tuesday, IMM data showed that spec net longs on EUR-USD were still high at 88,679 contracts, only modestly down from the record high of 102,598 contracts seen the previous week.

UK<.b> PPI was generally stronger than expected and along with Wednesday’s average earnings data this will provide some indication about medium-term inflation pressure. The core PPI output y/y rate rose to +2.7%, the highest since last June. The data offered some support for GBP, which had been struggling earlier in the day against the EUR. There is some modest downside risk on EUR-GBP while it stays below 0.6790-0.6800.

Day Ahead
New Zealand – retail sales will provide the latest reading on household demand, which has shown no real signs of slackening in recent months.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Productivity (Q4) q/q 08.30 -0.3%
US Fed’s Kroszner on policy framework 12.20
US Federal budget (Feb) 14.00 -$117.5bn
NZ Retail sales (Jan) m/m 19.45 +0.2%
GB RICS house prices (Feb) 20.01 +28% last
AU ANZ job ads (Feb) m/m 20.30 -0.1% last
CN CPI (Feb) y/y 22.00 +2.8%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP GDP (Q4 2nd est) q/q +1.3% +1.3%
JP Domestic CGPI (Feb) y/y +1.8% +1.9%
JP Dom CGPI – final goods (Feb) y/y -0.4% -0.3% last
JP Current account (Jan, sa) ¥1.84trn ¥1.9trn
AU Housing finance (Jan) m/m +0.3% +1.0%
JP Consumer confidence (Feb) 48.6 48.4 last
SE CPI (Feb) y/y +2.0% +1.8%
SE CPI UND1X (Feb) y/y +1.3% +1.2%
IT Ind prod (Jan) m/m -1.4% -0.7%
GB PPI input (Feb) m/m +1.3% +0.7%
GB PPI output (Feb) m/m +0.3% +0.2%
GB PPI output core (Feb) y/y +2.7% +2.3%
GB DCLG house prices (Jan) y/y +10.9% +9.6%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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