Tuesday March 13, 2007 - 04:13:34 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCADPrice:
Resistance: 1.1725 ... 1.1745 ... 1.1770 ... 1.1791
Support: 1.1696 ... 1.1681 ... 1.1647 ... 1.1625
We feel there is risk of a pullback to 1.1745-70 but while this caps we shall retain a bearish stance
Not quite what was expected yesterday with the dip to 1.1681 but we still feel this fits in more with a bearish stance. However, we feel that with a bullish divergence having formed we should see a correction develop and this has potential to the 1.1745-70 area but this should cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance is only valid on a break above 1.1770 and then 1.1791 and if seen then a move back to retest the 1.1825-50 area is likely.
Although price has moved above the 1.1800 we still canâ€™t get too bullish and this would require a break back above 1.1825-30 which would re-instate the old targets around 1.1928 & 1.1969. (March 6th)
Yesterday only saw a move to 1.1681 and this may now cause a deeper pullback. However, while this holds below 1.1745-70 we retain an overall bearish stance. From this area a break back below 1.1702 and then yesterdayâ€™s low at 1.1681 would extend the downside to 1.1647 at least â€“ take care there as this could cause a pullback if seen directly. Else look for an eventual move back towards the 1.1563 low.
With the 1.1825 peak holding we cautious feel there is still further downside to come. This should soon break below 1.1703 to extend losses to the 1.1563 low at least and potentially to 1.1513. (March 12th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We feel the move down to 1.1703 represented an ABC pattern that is probably Wave â€“i- of a new decline. Thus while a combination of a 50% retracement and a minor Wave c target in the correction stalling at 1.1763-75 we shall look for Wave â€“iii- to begin lower.
Yesterdayâ€™s extension to 1.1681 we feel completes Wave â€“i- with only minor risk of this seeing 1.1647 first. Thus while the correction in Wave â€“ii- remains below the 41.4%-61.8% retracement at 1.1745-70 we shall look for Wave â€“iii- to start lower.
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