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Friday May 7, 2004 - 08:21:15 GMT -

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Dollar/Yen crossed 200-day MA and psychological level of 110

Daily Forex Technical Report 05-07-2004

USD/JPY crossed 200-day MA and psychological level of 110
EUR/USD pulled back sharply from upper Bollinger

Technical Outlook

Healthy pullback on EUR/USD as the pair retreated from overbought levels. Daily technicals remain positive and bargain hunters will be buying dips as long as bulls can defend 1.1920, low of 04/30, 05/03 and 05/04. There is resistance at 1.2180, high of 05/05 and 05/06, with stochastic turning bearish, bulls will need to form a base above major psychological level of 1.2000 before they can resume this rally. Strong rally in USD/JPY as the pair regained major psychological level of 110, a convergence of 200-day MA and 38.2% fibo of Aug - Mar bear wave. Shorts will find current price level very attractive and they will sell into this rally unless bulls can close above 04/29 high at 111.05. Inability to produce a higher high here will spell doom for buyers as they lack strong support until 108.30, confluence of the 05/05 low, 50-day and 100-day EMA. It was an inside day for GBP/USD and buyers showed amazing resiliency putting together a string of higher lows on the daily since the completion of double bottom. Bulls now have a decent anchor at 1.7875 low of 05/05 and 05/06. Losing this level forces them to regroup at 1.7700, low of breakout on 05/04. They can send a convincing message with a close above major psychological level and the 100-day EMA at 1.8000. USD/CHF continued its rally from the lower Bollinger. A close above 50-day SMA at 1.2850 will give buyers a psychological boost. However they will face serious pressure from shorts looking to sell the rally at psychological level of 1.3000, also the 200-day EMA. Bulls are already experiencing a bit difficulty at 1.2900, 38.2% fibo of the sell-off from 04/26 - 05/05. They must defend 1.2695 low of 05/05 to prevent further damage.

Comment from 04/06
On 03/12 Sterling had a low at 7905 (slightly above our 7850/7900 area) before a rally to the 8608 High on 04/01, 703 pts higher. Today, the outlook is quite neutral as long as the current range is not broken. Range players will in fact enter in the 8650/8690 area thanks to the MT Trend S now R and High BB. A breakout above would open the door to 8810/40 and would turn the 8650/90 area into S. The 8810/40 area will attract more conservative bears who will try to exploit the 23.6% Fibo from the Jan - Feb bull wave. A clear Head and Shoulder is present on the dailys and bears will probably not miss it if 7850 is clearly violated. Fakeout players will probably try a play at 7830/70 thanks to the Low BB and a strong Fibo confluence (38.2% Fibo from the Sep - Feb bull wave & 50% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave). It is important to note though that the zone has been tested many times. This turns the area into a weaker S.

Sterling broke the 7850 area on 04/14. The pound is now bearish as long as the market does not clearly come back above 8100. Range players will in fact use the 8060/8100 zone to add to their USD holdings thanks to the ST swing high and Range R. Higher, bears will also have to keep in mind the 8640/8680 area in order to exploit the robust Fibo confluence present in the area (38.2% Fibo from the Jan bull wave & 76.4% Fibo from the Feb - Mar bear wave). Bulls do not have the upper hand but 7500/7550 will attract bottom pickers thanks to the Low BB, Range S and 61.8% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave. A breakout there would then open the door to the 7000/7050 level (61.8% Fibo from the Sep - Feb bull wave)



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