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Tuesday August 17, 2004 - 10:22:32 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-17-04

Filled to Capacity?
“Investment flow data for June surprised to the upside and suggested that investors are not too concerned about the faltering US economy but the view in the market is that the figures for July and August might tell a different tale.” writes Peter Stoneham of Thompson Financial. Looking at the daily chart of DJIA for the past 3 months we can easily see how Mr. Stoneham may very well be correct. In June, US equity markets enjoyed a gently positive uptrend enticing inflows from abroad but the sharp declines of July and August may have frightened many foreign investors indicating a less pleasant picture going forward. Thus yesterday’s positive TIC data offers no follow through to the greenback in tonight’s session. The JPY seems ready to tackle the 110 handle as oil prices decline while LEI and Coincident data show broad strength in the industrial sector and expanding confidence among Japanese consumers. The Euro-zone meanwhile produces mixed data as IP at -0.4% reports better than the expected –0.7% but ZEW disappoints on oil fears printing 52 vs. consensus 55.1 with Current Situation component doing a little better at –65.2 vs. –69 projected.

Although this morning most market players will focus on the headline CPI numbers to gauge the day’s direction, the far more interesting dataset in our opinion, will be the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization releases due just 13:15 GMT. We do not expect CPI to surprise to the upside as almost all recent data presents deflation rather than inflation. Last week’ s muted PPI of .1% was reaffirmed by yesterdays Empire Manufacturing which showed that both prices paid and prices received components decreased in August. As we noted before, the consumer -- leveraged to the hilt with no prospects of increased wages -- is highly price sensitive, forcing businesses to decrease prices in order to make sales. While the CPI should print as expected, Capacity Utilization figures could cause a stir especially if they report materially weaker. In its last statement the Fed specifically singled out the increases in CU as one the justifications for more a restrictive monetary policy. Should the Fed’s prognosis, as so frequently been the case lately, be completely wrong, it would remove one of the strongest arguments for Fed rate hike in September. This in turn could drive the dollar lower as euro bulls may finally see the 1.2400 handle for the first time in almost a month.

Key Overnight Developments
- EUR IP better at –0.4% vs. –0.7% expected but ZEW misses 52 vs. 55.1 projected
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR trades to standstill at 2340 after rallying to 2380 before mixed data
- JPY comes close to 110 but trades back to 110.50 as dollar firms after Euro eco data
- GBP loses the 8400 handle as RICS data offers little help for future hikes
- CHF dips below 2400 but trades back as low PPI data means SNB can be more dovish
Upcoming Events
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD CPI (m/m) (July) Expected at 0.2%, Previous 0.3%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD CPI Core (m/m) (July) Expected at 0.2%, Previous 0.1%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD CPI (y/y) (July) Expected at 3.2%, Previous 3.3%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD CPI Core (y/y) (July) Expected at 1.8%, Previous 1.9%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Housing Starts (July) Expected at 1,900K, Previous 1,924K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Building Permits (July) Expected at 1,950K, Previous 1,945K
13:15GMT – (9:15 AM EST) USD Industrial Production (m/m) (July) Expected at 0.5%, Previous –0.3%
13:15GMT – (9:15 AM EST) USD Capacity Utilization (July) Expected at 77.50%, Previous 77.20%

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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