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Tuesday March 13, 2007 - 14:47:56 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (13 March 2007)



The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3220 level and was supported around the $1.3155 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2480 to $1.3360. Data released in the U.S. today saw February headline retail sales off 0.1% while the ex-autos component was up +0.1% and the ex-gasoline and ex-autos component was off 0.3%, the weakest showing since April 2004. Also, January business inventories were up 0.2% m/m. Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner’s remarks last night were on the hawkish side as he indicated “Complacency (on interest rates) would be a threat to the credibility that the Federal Reserve has worked so hard to acquire, and its loss would would likely mean the reversal of many of the favourable inflation developments seen over the past two decades.” In eurozone news, the German ZEW business confidence indicator improved to 5.8 in March from 2.9 in February, above expectations, and the indicator is expected to improve further next month. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3115 level.


¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥116.50 level and was capped around the ¥117.75 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥115.15 to ¥118.50. Dollar bears are targeting the ¥116.25 and ¥115.60 levels as the pair’s next downside targets. Traders continue to unwind short yen carry trades in which yen was borrowed and converted to foreign currencies to invest in higher yielding assets. January industrial production data will be released overnight. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.66% to close at ¥17,178.84. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥ 115.20 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥153.75 level and was capped around the ¥155.25 level. The British pound and Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥225.05 and ¥95.45 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.7430 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.7520. Data released in China today saw the February consumer price index climb 2.7% y/y while actual foreign direct investment was up 13.04% in January and February. People’s Bank of China is expected to tighten monetary policy further, especially on account of China’s rapidly expanding trade surplus.



The British pound escalated higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9350 level and was supported around the $1.9270 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.9915 to $1.9180. Data released in the U.K. today saw RICS house price gains decelerate last month to their smallest monthly gains since May 2006. Also, the U.K.’s global trade deficit fell more than expected in January, reaching -₤6.2 billion – its best level since October 2005. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9245 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6835 level and was supported around the ₤0.6815 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2170 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2260 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2105 to CHF 1.2355. Most traders expect Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy by +25bps on Thursday and this may lead to additional franc tightening, especially if traders unwind some short franc carry trades. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2275 level. The euro and British pound weakened vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6090 and CHF 2.3545 levels, respectively.

A$

The Australian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.7885 level and was supported around the $0.7825 level. Technically, today’s intraday high is right around the 76.4% retracement of the move from $0.7945 to $0.7680. Data released in Australia today saw February ANZ job advertisements up 3.4% m/m and 24.8% y/y. Also, the February NAB business confidence index improved to 12.0 points from 6.0 points in January. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7805 level.

C$

The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1680 level and was capped around the C$ 1.1725 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from C$ 1.1560 to C$ 1.1825. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the C$ 1.1655 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 651.80 level and was supported around the $647.00 figure. The pair continues to track oil higher. Silver came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested bids around the $12.85 level and was capped around the $13.05 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for April delivery tested offers around the US$ 59.81 level and were supported around the $58.91 level. Most traders do not expect OPEC to change output levels when policymakers convene in Vienna on Thursday.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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