Thursday March 15, 2007 - 05:09:16 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for AUDUSDPrice:
Resistance: 0.7873 ... 0.7905 ... 0.7930 ... 0.7945
Support: 0.7840 ... 0.7825 ... 0.7801 ... 0.7786
We still prefer a bullish stance but would like to work with breaks
Gains seen as preferred yesterday which stalled just below the 0.7883 high. We continue to prefer a bullish stance but given the high level of volatility weâ€™d prefer to see the 0.7873-83 area break. Once seen it should spur price higher to 0.7930 at least where we need exercise care. Break there suggests a stronger test of 0.7979-81 which we feel should cap for a move lower.
While the 0.7797 low seen yesterday remains supporting there is still risk of gains back above 0.7848 and 0.7883 that would threaten the 0.7945-80 area once again. (March 14th)
With the gains stalling below the 0.7883 high we need be a little cautious. However, before getting too bearish we will need to see the 0.7840 support and if this occurs then expect the downside to edge lower towards 0.7800-20 where again we need be careful as this could cause a pullback. A stronger bearish stance would require breach of this support and if seen would trigger losses down to 0.7786 and possibly 0.7758.
Additional gains seen and therefore to revert to the downside we shall need a break back below 0.7797. If seen it heightens the risk for losses to 0.7750-55 and then down to 0.7718 & 0.7680. (March 14th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The wave structure is still unclear but we tend to feel it is occurring in a corrective structure of multiple ABC patterns. We are choosing to count the high at 0.7883 as Wave a and 0.7797 as Wave b. A wave equality target comes in at 0.7930 while a 138.2% projection comes in at 0.7981.
Therefore we watch this but need to consider the possibility of the Wave b developing in a complex pattern such as a triangle which would have a base around 0.7800-20.
This lower level would therefore act as the break level for a more bearish structure.
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