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Tuesday August 17, 2004 - 17:08:28 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (17 August 2004)



The euro weakened modestly vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2310 level after spiking to the $1.2390 level during early North American dealing. Data released in the U.S. today saw the headline July consumer price index down 0.1% with the core rate at +0.1%. These data were lower-than-expected and evidenced a moderation in recent inflationary pressures. Notably, this was the first decline in overall CPI since November 2003 but it is far too premature for economists to start talking about deflation again as the headline CPI has gained +3.0% over the previous twelve months with core CPI up +1.8% during the same period. These data saw a brief spike in the single currency as they suggest less pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Other data released at the same time saw a recovery in July new homes construction to 1.978 million units. Shortly thereafter, the Fed reported that industrial production grew +0.4% m/m and +4.9% y/y in July with June output downwardly revised to -0.5%. Manufacturing production climbed +0.6% in July and capacity utilization rose 0.2 percentage points to 77.1%. The euro came off during European dealing when it was reported that the German ZEW expectations index was down more-than-expected to +45.3 in August the first such deterioration in three months and the indexs lowest level since July 2003. Traders will notice that there selling activity actually took place before the ZEW was actually released. Other data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-12 industrial output register a smaller-than-expected 0.4% m/m decline in June with Q2 output up +1.4% q/q after receding +2.6% q/q in Q1. Euro bids are cited around the $1.2280/55 levels.



The yen appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the 109.90 level, its lowest rate since 6 August. Relative stability in the oil markets contributed to the yens gains given Japans significant dependence on imported oil. Crude traded at an intraday low around the $45.63 level before retracing some losses and moving back above the $46.50 level. Stops were hit below the 110.20 level during the pairs sell-off during North American dealing. More price activity was evident on the euro/yen and British pound/yen crosses with the latter staging a sizable 200+ point depreciation to the 201.00 figure. Data released in Japan saw the June diffusion index of coincident indicators at a revised 90.0, up from a preliminary 88.9 while the leading diffusion index registered 63.6, up from a preliminary 60.0 and above 50.0 for the tenth consecutive month. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.4% to close at 10,725.97 but still near the end of its recent trade range. Dollar bids are cited around the 109.85/75 levels with dollar offers seen around the 110.65 level. The euro came off vis--vis the yen today as the single currency tested bids around the 135.50 level after capping out around the 136.75 level. Stops were triggered below the 136.05 level.



The British pound weakened sharply vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.8260 level after spiking to the $1.8440 level during early North American dealing on the tame U.S. CPI number. Data released during Australasian dealing saw the RICS house price index fall to +3 in the three months to July from +17 in the three months to June. These data, if confirmed by other house price data, will likely have a downward impact on the pound for the foreseeable future as it would imply less housing market activity and decelerating final private demand. Cable bids are cited around the $1.8260/50 levels. The euro climbed extended recent gains vis--vis the British pound today as the single currency tested offers around the 0.6755 level after finding good demand around the 0.6705 level overnight.

CHF

The Swiss franc lost ground vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2480 level after finding decent demand around the CHF 1.2380 level during European dealing. Data released in Switzerland today saw July producer price inflation at -0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, numbers that are unlikely to prompt additional monetary tightening by the central bank. Swiss National Bank added one-week liquidity at 0.26% today, unchanged from Mondays repo rate level. The euro appreciated vis--vis the Swiss franc today as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5385 level and was supported around the CHF 1.5325 level.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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