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Monday March 19, 2007 - 05:27:52 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD

Price: 1.3310

Resistance: 1.3340 ... 1.3367 ... 1.3382 ... 1.3410

Support: 1.3298 ... 1.3280 ... 1.3250 ... 1.3230

Bias: Slightly mixed but favor a move back to 1.3250-80 before higher to 1.3367-82

Daily Bullish: Gains seen directly but stalled at 1.3338-40 – below our 1.3367-82 target. We need to be a little careful from here although we still feel there is a minor risk of seeing gains to target but not before a pullback to the 1.3250-80 area. While this support holds and moves back above 1.3305-20 we feel the main direction should be higher towards the 1.3367-82 target still but will look for this to cap. Only breach would extend to 1.3410 and 1.3452.

MT Bullish: We have to be cautious with the peak at 1.3338 but while 1.3230-50 supports there is still risk of seeing the 1.3367-82 target which should cap. Only above here extends to 1.3559 at least. (March 19th)

Daily Bearish: A cap was seen at 1.3338-40 and while this was a potential intermediate resistance it would imply further gains. However, before those gains we feel that the risk tends to favor a pullback and while price remains below 1.3320-30 there is room for the correction to move to 1.3280 mini8mum and probably 1.3250 (max 1.3230.) Thus only a break of 1.3230 would imply the upside is complete and trigger losses back to 1.3175, 1.3135 en route the 1.3071-86 lows over time.

MT Bearish: We have got close enough to the 1.3367-82 target to be aware of the possible larger reversal lower. However, wait for a break of 1.3230 to confirm… if seen look for 1.3050-80 initially. (March 19th)


ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

16th March

The 1.3312-16 target has been reached in Wave iii of Wave (c) and thus we look for a 50% pullback to 1.3234 and maximum a 58.6% pullback at 1.3220. From this broad area we shall look for a projection in Wave v that should move to the 1.3367 high and probably the 261.8% projection in Wave (c) at 1.3382 and this should complete the move higher.

19th March

The 1.3338 was implied as a possible 161.8% projection in Wave iii although this is very close to the 1.3367-82 target. If we take a 50%-58.6% pullback in Wave iv this comes to 1.3230-50 and while this holds there is therefore still chance of seeing a Wave v to target. Breach suggests we have seen the major peak at 1.3338.

Ian Copsey

 

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