Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday March 19, 2007 - 09:45:38 GMT
Share This Story
ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar fell to a 3-month low on economic fears
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
News and Events:
The Dollar dropped on Friday to 3-month lows on concerns the growing crisis in the US sub-prime mortgage industry could spread and hit economic growth. Investors are worried that weakness in parts of the housing sector could seep into other markets and the broader economy, particularly after former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of such a risk last Thursday. He added that overall the fate of the Dollar depends on developments in the sub-prime sector and Housing market. On Friday, the Dollar's sell-off shortly before the start of New York session was strong enough to push it below key technical levels, specifically against the Euro.
Dealers said that with Friday's dose of economic data out the way, the market would shift its focus to a Federal Reserve policy meeting this Wednesday. While US economic data has been mixed lately, the housing sector continues to be a difficult factor for investors. The futures market has already fully priced in two quarter-percentage point interest rate cuts by the end of the year.
The Consumer Price Index increase by 0.4% (MoM) in February, this was marginally above consensus at 0.3%, although the markets may have been braced for an even bigger increase following previous day above-consensus PPI numbers. Energy prices increased by 0.9%; led by a 1.5% increase in gas & electricity prices and a fairly modest 0.3% increase in gasoline. Food prices increased by 0.8%, led by a 4.7% jump in fresh food prices. Analysts said it is the recent frost damage to crops in the south, which wiped out 80% of California's fruit crop, is behind the temporary spike in fresh food prices. US Michigan Consumer Confidence fell to 88.8 in March, from 91.3, its lowest level since last September.
Today's Key Issues:
CHF 8:15 GMT: 4Q Industrial Production 4.7% vs 8.2% (QoQ) and 4.7% vs 8.2% (YoY)
CAD 12:30 GMT: January International Securities Transactions CAD 1.30B vs -3.26B
CAD 12:30 GMT: January Wholesale Sales -0.9% vs 2.7% (MoM)
US 17:00 GMT: March NAHB Housing Market Index 38 vs 40
CAD 20:00 GMT: Canada Government releases 2007 Budget
The Risk Today:
EurUsd pushed above the 1.3260 late February high and the 1.3298 early January high, leaving the bull trend from 1.2865 with little resistance till the broader trendline resistance at 1.3366 set back in early December. The bullish tone from 1.2865 looks still strong. Intraday support is around 1.3260. Initial support is former trendline resistance 1.3290, then 1.3260. A break there would open the risk down toward 1.3180.
GbpUsd has pushed through Monday's 1.9435 high and 1.9487 and may retest those Fibonacci resistances. This would clear the way for a run toward 1.9500 trendline resistance. On the down trend, 1.9390 marks initial support. The risk remains for further weakness with the next bear trigger at 1.9188. Then, focus will be on the 1.9146 Pivot support from last November.
UsdJpy continues its choppy consolidation phase, but as long as the 118.50 to 118.88 range resistance holds, we will keep our focus on the downside. A break of 115.76 and the 115.55 would clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from early March.
UsdChf is likely to remain under pressure after the break of former support at 1.2146 (61.8% retracement of 1.1881 â€“ 1.2575 advance) and Wednesday's 1.2104 low which exposes the 1.1981 December 12 low. There's little support below there till the 1.1881 early December low. Next strong support is 1.1984.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3666 T ||1.9850 P ||119.90 K ||1.2342 S |
|1.3480 S ||1.9750 S ||118.88 M ||1.2263 M |
|1.3370 S ||1.9500 T ||118.50 S ||1.2104 M |
|1.3300 ||1.9410 ||117.20 ||1.2090 |
|1.3290 M ||1.9390 M ||115.15 M ||1.2030 S |
|1.3180 S ||1.9188 S ||114.44 S ||1.1984 P |
|1.3074 S ||1.9146 P ||114.07 S ||1.1881 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Upgrade Your Trading experience. Try the Amazing Trader
- Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
- Live trading strategy sessions.
- Market Updates with Trading Tools.
Trading Ideas for 19 February 2018
Upgrade Your Trading. Try The Amazing Trader
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Feb 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
00:00 CN, US- Holiday
Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes
Thu 22 Feb 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.