Wednesday August 18, 2004 - 01:38:31 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 18th August 2004Price 1.2340
Resistance: 1.2355 ... 1.2385 ... 1.2435 ... 1.2460
Support....: 1.2320 ... 1.2300 ... 1.2280 ... 1.2255
Cautiously looking for 1.2355-65 to hold to allow losses to 1.2255-80
The lower resistance at 1.2390 held the spike higher yesterday and this now looks like providing the peak for this section of the underlying rally. Thus a return to a bullish stance can only be considered if the 1.2355-65 resistance is taken out which would then force a move above 1.2390-95 and onto the 1.2435-60 area at least. Further resistance is at 1.2525.
The peak at 1.2385 yesterday appears to have provided the high for this part of the rally and we bow look for losses to take the Euro lower in a correction. However, until the 1.2300 pivot area is broken we still need to exercise a little caution. However, once below 1.2300 look for losses to extend towards 1.2280 and 1.2255 at least. We feel the 1.2255 area has potential to cause a pullback. Further support is at 1.2175.
Elliott Wave Comments:
16th August 2004
Friday's rally means our wave count was incorrect and we have re-labeled the decline to 1.1967 as a larger Wave (x). There is a target generated in Wave (v) at 1.2445-60 and we feel that the rally on Friday has completed Wave (a) of Wave (v) only. Thus, we look for a pullback first that should reach 1.2300-20 and for a second move higher to reach the 1.2445-60 target. This should complete Wave A higher following which a correction in Wave B is likely back to 1.2175-1.2225.
18th August 2004
The peak at 1.2385 satisified a 61.8% target for the Wave (v) and we now feel that further downside is more probable. We have labeled the peak at 1.2385 as Wave -a- and see potential supports at 1.2175 being a 50% retracement and the prior Wave (iv) and also at 1.2125 which is a 61.8% retracement and pivot support. We shall need to watch how the decline develops.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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