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Tuesday March 20, 2007 - 05:28:58 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF

Price: 1.2132

Resistance: 1.2146 ... 1.2168 ... 1.2186 ... 1.2215

Support: 1.2105 ... 1.2074 ... 1.2057 ... 1.2029

Bias: While 1.2168-86 caps we will look for a deep pullback towards the 1.2030-60 area

Daily Bullish: Gains seen as expected although these have broken above the 1.2124-38 resistance and we take this as bullish in the medium term. However, we suspect that a cap is due which should see a pullback that we feel may be quite deep. There is resistance at 1.2168-86 and suspect this may well be tested but only a break through this area would cause a stronger rally that should revisit the 1.2215 corrective high and possibly extend to the 1.2244 area which should cause a correction.

MT Bullish: Yesterday’s gains appear to provide early confirmation of a reversal higher. We still need to see a move back through 1.2186 (and 1.2215) and once seen the upside should be stronger. (March 20th)

Daily Bearish: Although we have seen break above 1.2124-38 we cannot get too bullish at this stage but it does raise the risk that a major low has been seen. We note resistance at 1.2168-86 and while this holds we feel that a correction lower can be expected. A break below 1.2100 would cause additional losses which may well be deep and threaten the 1.2029 low again, but we look for this to remain intact.

MT Bearish: With the 1.2026-29 target having been met we are cautious about the downside and only a break now of 1.2026 would extend the downside to 1.1929-45 at least and potentially 1.1878-98. (March 20th)


ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

19th March

Target met and we prefer to see a recovery but need to allow for a deep correction back to retest the 1.2026-29 area again should EURUSD look to test the favored 1.3367-82 target. The reversal should first test the last Wave –b- at 1.2354.

20th March

The recovery looks useful but we note a minor internal projection between 1.2168-86 and feel this will form Wave –a- and therefore should be followed by a Wave –b-. We need measure potential retracement areas but given the target we have in EURUSD we may see this currency pair push quite deeply lower towards 1.2029-50.

Ian Copsey

 

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