User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday March 27, 2007 - 11:42:25 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Global Growth Question Time

Key News
• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
7:45a.m. ICSC Store Sales Index For Mar 24. Previous: +0.4%.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Mar 24 Wk. Previous: +0.5%.
10:00a.m. Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Expected: 108.0. Previous: 112.5.
10:00a.m. Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: -10.
5:00p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Mar 25 Wk. Previous: -5.


“No matter how rational the original decision was to enter a trading position, the very act of dealing moves an individual into a less rational, crowd-type environment. Specifically, the investor accepts one of the two crowds’ beliefs about the future trend in prices, and identifies strongly with other members of that same crowd. He or she becomes a committed crowd member.”

Tony Plummer

FX Trading – Global Growth Question Time

One of the key questions currency traders are wrestling with: Can global growth remain on track if the US doesn’t play the role as lead engine?

If the answer is yes, than it’s like more bad news for the dollar—and good news for the euro and a slew of other currencies. But the jury is still out on that question.

Players who believe in the global growth story ex-US point to Germany’s relatively strong cyclical momentum. Confidence continues to rise among the business sector in Germany despite a recent hike the country’s VAT (value added tax) and an already strong currency that’s likely pressuring the price of German exports e.g. cars and machine tools.

Today’s new on business confidence as reported by Bloomberg; the euro is slightly higher this morning:

“German business confidence unexpectedly rose in March, a sign Europe's largest economy has overcome a sales-tax increase and can withstand a U.S. slowdown.

“The Munich-based Ifo institute said its sentiment index, based on responses from 7,000 executives, rose to 107.7 from 107 in February. Economists expected a drop to 106.5, according to the median of 46 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The index reached 108.7 in December, the highest since records for a reunified Germany began in 1991,” Bloomberg reported.

Germany, and the euro zone, is sending an increasing share of their exports to China (an vice versa). And China is chugging along nicely, with no let up in sight. So even if the US economy heads into the hopper, China and Europe can go it alone.

Not so fast say the global growth ex-US pessimists. Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach leads the charge here:
“As the US economy slows, most believe that Asia’s growth machine will fill the void. Don’t count on it. Policy makers in China and India are shifting toward restraint, tilting growth risks in the region’s fastest-growing economies to the downside. Nor is an externally-dependent Japanese economy likely to provide much compensation. To the extent the case for global decoupling is dependent on an Asian offset, prepare to be disappointed.

“The Asian offset, in conjunction with a modest cyclical uplift in a long sluggish European economy, is the essence of the case for global decoupling – a world economy that has finally weaned itself from the great American growth engine. A key presumption of that conclusion is that Asia can stay its present course. There are two flaws in that argument, in my view – the first being that internal pressures are now building in Asia’s fastest-growing economies that could be sowing the seeds for slower growth ahead. In particular, both the Chinese and Indian economies are now displaying worrisome signs of overheating.

“There is a second factor at work that is also likely to challenge the view that hyper growth is here to stay in Asia – the region’s persistent reliance on external demand as a major driver of economic growth. This is less a story for India, with its relatively small trade sector, and more a story for the rest of Asia. China is at the top of the external vulnerability chain. Its export sector, which rose to nearly 37% of GDP in 2006, surged at a 41% y-o-y rate in the first two months of 2007. Moreover – and this is an absolutely critical point in the decoupling debate – the United States is China’s largest export market, accounting for 21% of RMB-based exports. As the US economy now slows, the biggest piece of China’s export dynamic is at risk.”

The problem with speculating on sustainability of global growth, from the currency perspective, is that it seems to raise more questions than it answers. At what point will a falling dollar become self-defeating for Europe, as the Chinese yuan moves lower relative to the euro in almost lock-step as the buck falls? What’s the lag between a sharp US deceleration and its impact on Europe or China? And just how “high” are the expectations among currency players that Europe’s growth momentum is sustainable? And if Europe’s growth is derailed, in a global fashion, does it then raise the spectre of more turmoil within the European Union (read Italy)? And if China surprises on the downside, does that spook an inordinate amount of funds out of the emerging markets that at the moment are happily invested there based on the “solid fundamentals”?

We can create scenarios. But let’s not kid ourselves into believing we can “forecast” this stuff. Questions and scenarios abound! We think the best we can do is to watch expectations of the players and how reality in the world plays out against those expectations; that’s where our likely best clues will lie.

Jack Crooks

Reader Response from yesterday’s Currency Currents:

“Years ago, when local banks found themselves holding bad loans (often based on local economic conditions), they had to limit all lending, including to creditworthy borrowers - and those worthy borrowers had nowhere else to turn. Now, interstate competition and even international competition have made it almost irrelevant if a particular lender goes belly-up. There are always other healthy financial firms ready to seize market share from troubled ones, or buy assets at fire sale prices. Moreover, the world is awash in liquidity, interest rates are low, and the Fed is still accommodative – not tight like it was in 1999-2000 prior to the stock market crash."

RR: I don’t know about this. Given that FNMA writes around 50% of US mortgages and that another 30% or so are done “on FMNA paper”, the recent changes which essentially prohibit no-doc loans will have impacts far beyond the so-called subprime borrowers. The effective monopoly which FNMA has over terms and conditions of home loans in the USA makes the effective market more concentrated, not less.

The news media often displays a special cluelessness when they mistake low interest rates for “easy money”, and when they confuse high interest rates with “tight money”. If they won’t give you the loan, then the nominal interest rate is irrelevant.

While I agree that most of the housing market will not be directly affected, we still have to ask what the impact of a 10-20% reduction in loan approvals will be, and we have to ask what a 30-50% reduction in new home starts would do to the general economy.

D. C.

Thank you DC!


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105