Thursday August 19, 2004 - 01:22:58 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S Dollar vs Swiss Franc August 19th 2004Price 1.2440
Resistance: 1.2465 ... 1.2485 ... 1.2510 ... 1.2540
Support....: 1.2435 ... 1.2405 ... 1.2375 ... 1.2350
While 1.2420-40 holds, cautiously bullish to 1.2540 and possibly 1.2610-25
Our target at 1.2510 was hit yesterday and we are left with a rather ambiguous picture. If we look at the underlying structure we still feel there is room for the upside. This would require support in the 1.2420-35 area holding and further gains would then be confirmed on a move above 1.2465-85. On ce this occurs we should see a move above 1.2510 to 1.2540 at least though we suspect the full pullback from 1.2374 should reach to the 1.2610-25 area.
A choppy day yesterday but the 1.2510 resistance held well. This is the minimum pullback we'd expect and thus we do have to acknowledge the possibility of a resumption of the move lower. This is not something we prefer, but would respect a break below 1.2420-35 which we feel would trigger a move back to 1.2375 at least and possibly 1.2340-50. Further support is found at 1.2325 and then 1.2270.
Elliott Wave Comments:
August 16th 2004
We have had to adjust the wave count once again in light of Friday's decline and we now consider the possible sideways complex correction as unlikely. The decline to 1.2375 satisfies the 76.4% projection in Wave v and thus completes Wave -a- lower with the implication that the next move, supported by daily cycles, should be higher in Wabe -b-. We feel this has potential to 1.2615-25 at least where the Wave -iv- rests and also represents a 50% retracement of Wave -a-.
August 17th 2004
Yesterday's failure to recover beyond 1.2455 does highlight the risk of the alternate wave count shown in blue in which we are seeing an (a)-(b)-(c) pattern lower which would imply a target at 1.2280. Thus while yesterday's high at 1.2445 holds (implying a Wave iv peak) we must be prepared for the losses to 1.2280 before any meaningful recovery can take place and which would have potential back to the 1.2625-45 (wave (b)) area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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