User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday March 28, 2007 - 21:31:49 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Dollar Rebounds as Rise in Oil Forces Fed to Remain Somewhat Hawkish

DailyFX Fundamentals 03-28-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Dollar Rebounds as Rise in Oil Forces Fed to Remain Somewhat Hawkish
• British Pound Slips after Current Account Deficit Hits 16 Year High
• New Zealand Dollar Falls Victim to Risk Aversion, Yen Benefits

US Dollar – Ben Bernanke’s concern for inflationary pressures has helped the US dollar strengthen against every other major currency except for Japanese Yen, which has danced to its own tune for weeks now. The Fed is in a very precarious position at the moment as they balance the deterioration in the housing market and the downturn in growth with the rise in oil prices. Over the past week, oil prices have jumped 15 percent on the back of growing tensions with Iran. The rise in oil prices have in the past kept central banks on inflation watch and this time, things are no different. Bernanke said specifically that “core inflation remains uncomfortably high” and even though core inflation could slow gradually over time, they have not shifted away from their inflation bias. On the subprime sector, Bernanke said that the central bank is watching the sector very carefully and for the time being, there have been no significant signs of spillover. In plain English, the Federal Reserve Chairman is telling us that they are not ready to lower rates, even though the market has been looking for one. They have also indicated that future rate decisions will be data dependent and judging from the recent trend of US data, the Fed may not be able to hold onto their hawkish bias for long. Durable goods orders were weaker than expected despite the bounce in the headline figures. Orders increased by 2.5 percent in the month of February, after having fallen a downwardly revised 9.3 percent in January. Excluding the more volatile transportation component, orders still fell 0.1 percent, which compares to the market’s forecast of 1.8 percent. The main highlights of this week have since past and there is no significant data on the docket tomorrow. In the meantime, oil will continue to be the market’s center focus. Should oil prices resume their climb, the chances of an August rate cut will become even slimmer. If oil prices top out however the market will refocus on the deterioration in US data and in the case of oil, Iran is the real wild card.

Euro – Like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank reiterated their own concerns for inflation risk. ECB President Trichet said that monetary growth is vigorous and interest rates are still on the accommodative side, suggesting that the central bank may be considering another rate hike. Other comments by ECB members Weber and Gonzalez-Paramo contained the same sentiment, which likely stems from the combination of stronger economic data and higher oil prices. Although consumer confidence was slightly weaker in the month of April, the slowdown in consumer price growth was less than expected while the growth in M3 for the Eurozone as a whole was particularly strong. There is a number of important Eurozone data due for release tomorrow, which includes German and French unemployment and Eurozone retail PMI. With the US calendar devoid of any significant data, we could finally see some Euro driven price action. The market is looking for an improvement in the labor markets, but deterioration in consumer spending. Recent Eurozone data suggests that the Value Added tax has only had a limited impact on the Eurozone economy. However now that Germans have to deal with a higher tax AND higher oil prices, the sustainability of strong spending going forward is questionable. We may not see this reflected in the March data, but we could certainly see this reflected in April data, if oil prices continue their current trend. Meanwhile over in Switzerland, leading indicators improved for the second month in a row. The Swiss economy is improving, which will keep rate hikes a possibility.

British Pound – Softer housing market, trade and GDP figures have sent the British pound tumbling against the US dollar today as prospects for another rate hike diminishes even further. The market was originally looking for faster house price growth in the month of March, but not only did house prices grow by a slower pace (0.4 percent actual versus 0.7 percent expected), but growth in the prior month was also revised lower. Fourth quarter GDP growth was also revised from 0.8 to 0.7 percent, but the biggest disappointment came from the current account deficit, which hit 16 year high of GBP12.7 billion in the fourth quarter. Things are beginning to turn ugly in the UK and if they do not improve soon, the market could begin to talk about the possibility of a rate cut rather than a rate hike. Inflation and housing data is due out tomorrow along with the CBI distributive trades survey. Analysts had been looking for an improvement, but given the recent trend of data, that could be difficult to achieve.

Japanese Yen – The Japanese Yen performed very well today as risk aversion sends investors out of their recently reestablished carry trade positions. The weakness in stock markets around the world and growing geopolitical risks (Iran showed pictures of the UK hostages on TV today) are all reasons that support the cautious sentiment. There was no Japanese data released last night, but this evening we are expecting retail sales. Consumer spending has long been one of the weakest parts of the Japanese economy. After a sharp drop in the month of January, analysts are looking for a strong rebound. However when it comes spending, we often see more disappointments than upside surprises.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) – The New Zealand dollar was one of the day’s worst performing currencies. Despite the improvement in building permits and a 4 month high in approvals, the exodus out of carry trades has hit the currency hard. Fourth quarter current account is expected to improve tonight thanks to the narrower trade deficit that was recently reported, but with more important Japanese data, NZD/JPY could dictate the movements in the NZD/USD. The Australian dollar also fell victim to selling, but no data is expected from Australia until next week. The same price action was seen in the Canadian dollar which weakened despite the continual rise in oil prices. Even though there is no data from Canada tomorrow, a speech from central bank Governor Dodge may be worth watching.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105