Thursday March 29, 2007 - 05:06:23 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDJPYPrice:
Resistance: 117.15 ... 117.42 ... 117.65 ... 118.08
Support: 116.60 ... 116.32 ... 116.00 ... 115.75
We look for 116.32-37 to support for gains to around 118.01-14
Losses progressed rather quickly falling in steps through yesterdayâ€™s support areas and stalling at 116.37. We feel this area around 116.25-32 should support and allow a move back above this morningâ€™s peak at 117.15 towards 117.39-44 at least. Take care here, just incase the recovery is as low as the one from 116.25 to 118.41. Above 117.44 see resistance at 117.65 and then the favored target at 118.01-14. Only above 118.41-48 is more bullish to 118.67.
Yesterdayâ€™s sharp drop looks more bearish. Thus now we should expect limited gains and only above 118.14-48 would allow extension to 118.67-00 before lower again. (March 29th)
The break below 117.25-28 saw pullbacks at the 117.09 and 116.85 supports en route the final low at 116.37. We do feel that we are close to a larger decline but first there should be one final recovery. Thus only a break below 116.25-32 would appear to trigger this any earlier. If seen then look for losses to move down through 115.75 to the area of the 115.16 low which could provide a minor pullback before lower again.
The decline to 116.37 looks more like part of a consolidation and thus while price now holds below 118.14-20 we will look for break below 116.25, 115.75 & 115.16 en route 113.21-42. (March 29th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The break below 116.85 saw a decline to the 66.7%-76.4% projection around 116.32-58 within a triangle structure. The only concern we have about this is the particularly deep peak in Wave ^c but there are no rules on triangles looking prettyâ€¦
If this is a triangle then expect the 61.8%-66.67% projection in Wave ^e to end around 118.01-14. Do allow for mild breaches. That would complete Wave (b) of Wave (iii) and thus we shall look for a subsequent decline to the 261.8% projection at 113.21 â€“ remembering the 113.42 corrective low.
Above 118.48 implies a deeper 61.8% correction to 118.67.
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