User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday March 29, 2007 - 21:51:11 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Its Not Just about Pro Dollar or Anti Dollar These Days

FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 03-29-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

• Its Not Just about Pro Dollar or Anti Dollar These Days
• Euro Rallies on Stronger Unemployment and Retail Trade Data
• Yen Slips on Weak Consumer Spending

US Dollar – In the past few years, determining the theme in the currency markets was simple – the prevailing sentiment was either pro dollar or anti dollar. If the dollar sold off, it would do so against every major currency and if it rallied, dollar strength would also be universal. In the past month however, pro dollar or anti dollar sentiment would only be reflected in USD/JPY and USD/CHF. For the other currencies, their performance against the dollar would be based upon which country had the more promising interest rate prospects. Today was no different as the new market dynamics continued to drive market activity. Even though fourth quarter GDP and core PCE were revised higher, the US dollar sold off against the Euro, British Pound, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. The only currencies that it managed to strengthen against were the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. Although it can be argued that the reaction to the US data suggests that traders may not believe that the improvement in US growth will continue, this is not really the reason why dollar strength was only limited to the Yen. Admittedly, GDP is backward looking and recent reports on consumer spending, consumer confidence, the housing market and durable goods indicate that the economy is still very vulnerable. However the real explanation for the movements is oil. Oil prices have increased once again to settle above $65 a barrel. The more than 15 percent rise in crude prices has forced the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at 5.25 percent and warn that inflation risks will prevent them from cutting interest rates anytime soon. However the rise in oil prices also has the same impact on inflationary pressures in the Eurozone and other countries like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Unlike the US, their economic growth is not faltering as much as the US. They do not have the same problems in their housing markets and for the most part, aside from the Eurozone, the labor markets for these countries are very tight. This means that while the Federal Reserve’s only choice is to cut rates or not, the options that these central banks have are either to keep their rates unchanged or to raise them. This discrepancy has led to the underperformance of the US dollar against everything except for the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. This dynamic will only change if oil prices reverse course. In the meantime, we are expecting personal income, personal spending, Chicago PMI and construction spending tomorrow. The previous disappointments in the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys will limit the impact of Chicago PMI while spending and income could be hurt by the recent slowdown in the housing market and the sharp drop in the stock prices last month.

Euro – Stronger data all around has helped to rally the Euro. Improvements were seen in both the French and German labor markets. German unemployment dropped by a much larger than expected 65k in the month of March, bringing the unemployment rate down from 9.3 percent to 9.2 percent while the French unemployment rate fell from 7.4 percent to 6.9 percent. Retail sales in the region as a whole were also very strong as retail PMI expanded once again. The index rose from 49.8 to 53.4 thanks to improvements in both Germany and France. The combination of higher inflationary pressures and stronger economic data paves the way for a further rate hike by the central bank. Another batch of Eurozone data is due for release tomorrow including German retail sales, French consumer confidence, French Producer prices, Eurozone consumer confidence and Eurozone unemployment. Once again, improvements are expected all around, which should continue to support the Euro.

British Pound – A flurry of activity in the UK failed to lead to any meaningful price action in the British pound. Overall, the data released this morning was mostly positive for the pound with both mortgage lending and approvals beating consensus. The strength of data suggests that the previous three BOE rate hikes are having little effect on the housing sector as demand continues to rise. The results further indicate that, central bankers could still raise interest rates again this year. Adding to the hawkish bias was the distributive trade survey for the month of March. UK retailer sales volume skyrocketed to the highest balance since December 2004. This indicates that consumer spending growth is robust, which is likely to feed into higher inflationary levels.

Japanese Yen – Yesterday we had said that when it comes consumer spending, we often see more disappointments than upside surprises. Unfortunately that was exactly what happened in the month of February. Retail sales dropped by 0.9 percent, which was far larger than 0.5 percent drop that was initially expected. Most of the decline came from autos and gasoline sales which does provide an ounce of encouragement, but last night’s data only further validates the Bank of Japan’s hesitancy to raise rates again. This has helped to keep carry trades in play as the Yen became the day’s worst performing currency pair.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) – The high-yielding New Zealand dollar stayed afloat today with the help of economic data that raised the prospects of additional monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Current Account balance for the fourth quarter hit -3.929B, an improvement from the third quarter balance of -4.667B. Along with the jump in M3 Money Supply to 14.0 percent from 12.5 percent, this signals that the RBNZ could be forced to raise rates in April in order to cool surging domestic demand and the massive expansion of credit. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar gave up some of this morning's gains following Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge's press conference. In his commentary, Mr. Dodge said the market should not put too much focus on a single CPI number, referring to last month's jump of 2.4 percent rise in the core reading which subsequently sent the USDCAD pair reeling. Nevertheless, Loonie's losses were capped on Mr. Dodge's observation that domestic demand "seems a little stronger.” After rallying this morning to test heavy resistance at .8100, the Australian dollar ended today just slightly above yesterday's New York close.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105