User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday March 30, 2007 - 21:25:25 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Watch ISM as a Leading Indicator for Payrolls Next Week

FXCM DailyFX Fundamentals 03-30-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Watch ISM as a Leading Indicator for Payrolls Next Week
• Euro Rallies as Potential Beneficiary of Any Chinese Diversification
• Japan Slips Back into Deflation

US Dollar – In an unexpected twist, what should have been a relatively quiet Friday turned out to be an extremely volatile one. As we expected, the Chicago PMI only triggered a limited reaction in the currency market. Despite a strong 14 point rise in the Chicago PMI index, traders questioned the reliability of the jump because it comes in sharp contrast to the weakness that we have seen in the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys earlier this month. Although the Chicago PMI report has had a stronger correlation than the Philly Fed with the national ISM index since 2005, over the longer term, the Philly Fed tends to be the more reliable leading indicator for the ISM. Furthermore, the Chicago number has been faulted for sharp spikes and false signals in the past, which suggests that predicting next week’s ISM number is anyone’s game. Most of the strength came from a sharp rise in new orders and production and since both the employment and prices paid components of the report fell, there is still underlying weakness. Other reports released today were mixed with the PCE deflator and construction spending increasing while consumer confidence deteriorated. Personal spending accelerated from the prior month while personal income growth slowed, indicating that consumers continued to spend more than they earned, which is not a healthy habit. However despite the abundance of US data released today, it was not the US economic reports that drove the significant volatility in the currency and stock markets. Instead, the US Commerce Department announced that they will impose tariffs on Chinese exports of glossy paper for the first time in over 20 years. The dollar sold off on the announcement on fears of retaliatory measures by China and the impact brought on by protectionism. Our special report about the US Sanctions on China – Will there be more to Come? explores this topic even further. In the week ahead, manufacturing, non-manufacturing ISM and non-farm payrolls are the most important US economic releases due for release. The employment components of both of the ISM reports will be used as leading indicators for Friday’s payrolls number, so expect some volatility in the markets should there be any surprises on that front. In the meantime, it is important to look for any responses from China because in all likelihood, this could be the first step towards more sanctions.

Euro – Strength in the Euro today was driven purely by the news on China. The most logical retaliatory measure for China to take, if they were to take one would be to announce that they plan on diversifying a part of their big war chest of foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar. In that case, one of the most immediate beneficiaries would be the Euro, which has long been chipping away at the US dollar’s status as the world’s premier reserve currency. There were no major surprises in Eurozone data last night. German retail sales growth on a monthly basis was right in line with expectations, but the annualized pace of spending fell more than expected. The rest of the data was relatively positive with French GDP and producer prices firming, the Eurozone CPI estimate increasing, the regional unemployment rate dropping and overall confidence improving. In the week ahead, Eurozone PMI indexes are due for release along with regional PPI, retail sales and German industrial production. US data should dictate trading however since both the US ISM and non-farm payroll reports are the foreign exchange market’s biggest market movers. Meanwhile in Switzerland, manufacturing sector PMI, consumer prices and the KoF economic outlook could trigger some activity in the Swiss Franc.

British Pound – Like the Euro, the British pound is stronger against the US dollar. The GfK consumer confidence report was the only piece of UK data on the docket and it came out right in line with expectations, revealing that confidence remained unchanged at -8 during the month of March. The situation with the captured UK soldiers seemed to have improved slightly. Iran aired a second apology by one of the captured soldiers, but according to Bloomberg News, Iran called upon the UK to ``guarantee'' British vessels wouldn't penetrate Iranian waters again, in a message delivered to the UK Embassy in Tehran yesterday that was reprinted today by the official news agency. It didn't repeat the demand by Iran's military yesterday for a British apology in connection with the naval crew seized in the Shatt al-Arab waterway.” The EU has also stepped in to call for an immediate release of the troops. The progression of this geopolitical risk could play a big role in the fluctuations of the GBP in the days or weeks to come. A swift resolution would be positive for the pound while heightened tensions would be negative. In the week ahead, we are expecting UK PMI, the Nationwide consumer confidence report, industrial production and a monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England. Interest rates are not expected to be changed.

Japanese Yen – Even though the Japanese Yen has rallied against the US dollar, it has struggled to gain strength against the other major currencies. A drop in consumer prices puts the economy back in deflationary mode, which will give the Bank of Japan yet another reason to keep interest rates unchanged. We will need to wait to see whether this is simply a one month anomaly or the beginning of a new trend In contrast to yesterday’s reports, overall household spending increased significantly in the month of February. Industrial production also fell less than expected, prompting Prime Minister Abe to say that the economy is on a strong recovery trend. The only piece of important data expected next week is the quarterly Tankan report on business confidence.

Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) – The Australian and Canadian dollars both strengthened today while the New Zealand dollar sold off following a sharp drop in business confidence and a weaker than expected Q4 GDP report. There was no Australian data released but gold prices firmed. Canada’s stronger industrial production report offset its weaker GDP number. In the week ahead, there is no significant New Zealand data. Australia has a monetary policy announcement along with retail sales and the trade balance. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Canada will be reporting IVEY PMI and employment.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105