Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday April 3, 2007 - 09:45:48 GMT
Share This Story
ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar steady as payroll and rate meetings are waited
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
News and Events:
The Dollar held steady against the Euro and the Sterling with the market focused on Friday's US jobs data for March and this week other economic data for clues on when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. Some analysts said the Dollar could come under pressure later in the week if US payrolls data disappoints, and if the Bank of England raises interest rates on Thursday, a move that would diminish the Dollar's yield's advantage.
The US ISM Manufacturing Index dropped back a little further than expected to 50.9 in March, from 52.3. The consensus was 51.4, but the big jump in the Chicago PMI late last week probably raised expectations ahead. Some weakness was seen in the New Orders, Production and Employment indexes. The employment index declined to a near 2-year low of 48.7, from 51.1. The Price Paid index, which measures inflationary pressures in manufacturing, climbed to its highest since August at 65.5 vs 59. Upward pressure on inflation would likely lead the Federal Reserve to hold back from cutting interest rates from the current level of 5.25% any time soon. Analyst said ISM was a bit disappointing after the large upside surprise in Chicago PMI.
The Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing slowed slightly in March. The data left intact expectations that the ECB would raise rates as early as June.
EurUsd rose 0.12% to 1.3372 near the two-year high 1.3412. UsdJpy was fairly unchanged at 117.86 while the EurJpy rose 0.15% at 157.59. GbpUsd jumped up 0.54% to 1.9784 testing 1.9801 intraday high. AudUsd was the biggest daily performer up 0.95% to 0.8163 hitting a 10-year high of 0.8183. Reserve Bank of Australia may raise interest rates on Wednesday.
Bank of England rate decision due on Thursday: most analysts expect the BoE to hold at its policy meeting, but markets are pricing in a 40% chance that the Central Bank will raise rates from 5.25%, bringing them above the US Federal Funds rate.
Today's Key Issues:
EUR 09:00 GMT: ECB's Liebscher speaks in Vienna
GB 09:30 GMT: March Purchasing Managers Index Construction 57.5 vs 57.3
CHF 09:30 GMT: KoF holds Media Conference on Economic Outlook
EUR 10:00 GMT: Euro-zone Producer Price Index 0.3% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 2.7% vs 2.9% (YoY)
US 13:55 GMT: Redbook March 31 previously 0.7%
US 15:00 GMT: February Home Sales 0.2% vs 4.1% (MoM)
AUD 00:30 GMT: March AIG Performance of Service Index previously 54.5,
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision expected 6.25% unchanged
The Risk Today:
EurUsd posted further advance above 1.3260 rebound and a break of this support looks unlikely to trigger a fresh round of weakness opening 1.3200 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3072-1.3412 rally). A break there would open the risk down toward 1.3180. Focus remains on the 1.3411 trend high from previous week, with strong resistance at the 1.3480 reaction March 11 high.
GbpUsd outlook remains positive as market broke up 1.9750 former resistance. This positive trend might extend near 1.9850, where there is little resistance until the 1.9917 late January high. Initial support is 1.9750 (former resistance) followed by 1.9582 and 1.9571.
UsdJpy consolidation phase continues to hold below the 118.50 to 118.98 resistance band keeping the broader bearish tone intact. Recent downward pressure from last week 118.44 high will need to break down 116.37 to clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from early March. Initial support is 117.17.
UsdChf is holding below resistance at 1.2230 and last Friday's high 1.2240. But it will take a break of the 1.2080 to mark a return of the broader bear trend and open the door toward its 1.2030. Lower than that, there is little support till the 1.1881 early December low. On the topside, a break of 1.2230 would instead reinstate a short-term bullish theme.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3666 T ||2.0100 T ||119.90 K ||1.2342 S |
|1.3480 S ||1.9917 T ||118.88 M ||1.2263 M |
|1.3411 M ||1.9850 P ||118.50 S ||1.2230 S |
|1.3360 ||1.9790 ||118.15 ||1.2165 |
|1.3260 S ||1.9750 S ||117.17 M ||1.2030 S |
|1.3200 S ||1.9675 M ||116.76 S ||1.1984 P |
|1.3180 S ||1.9188 S ||115.15 T ||1.1881 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader
- Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
- Live trading strategy sessions.
- Market Updates with Trading Tools.
Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017
Register for the Amazing Trader
Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES
Trader's Advocate Articles..