Thursday April 5, 2007 - 11:25:17 GMT
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Black Swan Currency Currents
Thursday 5 March 2007 http://www.blackswantrading.com
â€¢ N.Z. Dollar Heads for Weekly Gain on Demand for High Yields â€“ Bloomberg
â€¢ Chilean Peso Strengthens as Copper Prices Increase a Sixth Straight Day -- Bloomberg
â€¢ Asian finance officials plan to meet in Thailand Thursday, and high on the agenda: doing something about the money pouring into their countries from foreign investors, so it doesn't whipsaw their economies on the way back out.
â€¢ Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: +10K. Previous: -10K.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. Previous: -0.3%.
12:00p.m. Feb Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index. Previous: -2.3%.
"Time's fun when you're having flies."
-- Kermit the Frog
FX Trading â€“ The Straws That Broke the Camelâ€™s Greenback
There are a few things playing out right now. Letâ€™s get the ball rolling with ...
U.S. Economic Data out This Week Paints a Dreary Picture
ï‚§ The Institute for Supply Managementâ€™s non-manufacturing index slowed to 52.4 from 54.3.
ï‚§ The ISMâ€™s manufacturing index showed a similar slowdown to 51.1 from 52.3.
ï‚§ February factory orders grew by 1% and fell short of analysts 1.8% expected up-tick. The 5.7% drop in January was the largest in six years.
ï‚§ Capital goods orders, a gauge for future business investment, backed up by 2.4% following 6.2% dive in the prior month. That was twice the 1.2% dip the commerce department was expecting.
ï‚§ Not too mention another drop-off in durable goods orders.
Things arenâ€™t shaping up very nicely for a U.S. economic revival, specifically on the business spending front. Could this blitzkrieg of poor data be enough to notice some spillover into the job market?
We may find out tomorrow when non-farm payrolls are due to be reported. Note: yesterday ADP Employment Services reported U.S. companies added 106,000 jobs, fewer than expect in the month of March after February figures were revised higher.
Bottom line: if the job market starts to show signs of loosening up, thatâ€™s another threat to the thus-far-resilient U.S. consumer. Theyâ€™ve held up through a real estate collapse. I doubt theyâ€™ll be able to juggle unemployment concerns on top of it.
Weâ€™re not calling for a full-on dollar implosion, but we will say, barring a noteworthy upside surprise in the jobs report on Friday, the path of least resistance for the buck is down.
John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital
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