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Thursday April 5, 2007 - 12:47:20 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 05-Apr-2007....1152 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.2196/01.....Strong Resistances ahead
--------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2215-20 / 1.2250 / 1.2280
S: 1.2170 / 1.2150 / 1.2124
USD-CHF has remained very lackluster today as well as the pair continues to trade just below its big Resistance of 1.2215-20. Now if that is crossed then there could be a move towards 1.2250, a move above which is not expected. Incase there is a move above 1.2250 on a closing basis, then there could be an upmove towards 1.2350, the 200-Day MA in the next couple of weeks. We exited our short position at 1.2212, which was entered at 1.2215.

On the downside Support is at 1.2170 and then at 1.2150. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.2124. The pair is not expected to show any big move today. However there could have a big move tomorrow as US NFP comes out on a Good Friday, when the liquidity is expected to be thin.

See US NFP chart at http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/usnfp.shtml.



GBP-USD @ 1.9712/16......Support at 1.9660
---------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.9750 / 1.9780 / 1.9838
S: 1.9670-60 / 1.9620
As it turns out the BOE kept its interest rates unchanged and the GBP-USD had a sharp fall to a low of 1.9672 before bouncing back to recover almost all its losses. It unfortunately missed our buy order by a few pips. Now for today 1.9670-60 is an important Support as it comes up on a trendline on the daily, joining the lows of 1.9213 (14-Mar) and 1.9545 (30-Mar). If 1.9670-60 is broken (unlikely) then there could be a decline towards 1.9620.

On the upside the Resistance for the pair is at 1.9750 and then at 1.9780. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 1.9838. The pair is expected to stay sideways now for the next few hours.





AUD-USD @ 0.8181/85.....At 11-year High
------------------------------------------------------
R: 0.8200 / 0.8215 / 0.8227
S: 0.8150-48 / 0.8120
AUD-USD has had an extremely strong upmove in the last 36 hours even though the RBA did not raise interest rates yesterday. The markets are now discounting a certain rate hike in the 02nd May meeting (please click on http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/aurba.shtml). The pair has hit a high of 0.8215 earlier today testing its Dec-1996 high, which was also 0.8215. A move above that would take the pair to its highest level in nearly 17 years. AUD-USD had topped at 0.8475 in Aug-1990.

During the day the pair has traded in a small range between 0.8200 on the upside and 0.8170 on the downside. Now for today the pair has good Support coming in at 0.8150-48, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. If that is broken (unlikely) then there could be a fall towards 0.8120 on the way. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.8200 and then at 0.8215. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 0.8227. Dips may be bought into.





Happy Trading!

 

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