User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday April 5, 2007 - 21:28:23 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - US Dollar Slips to 2 Year Low Against Euro ahead of Payrolls

DailyFX Fundamentals 04-05-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

• US Dollar Slips to 2 Year Low Against Euro ahead of Payrolls
• British Pound Sells off After Bank of England Leaves Rates Unchanged
• Strong Canadian Employment and Manufacturing Data Sends Loonie Soaring

US Dollar – Liquidation of long dollar positions ahead of the holiday weekend has pushed the greenback to fresh 2 year lows against the Euro. There have been some rumors that tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls release may not be as hot as the market is expecting, but there hasn’t been data to confirm that. The CME payroll derivatives auction settled at 121.6k this morning, which indicates that traders are less optimistic about job growth than economists. However 121k is still good, especially since Monster.com reported that their employment index rose from 185k to 177k, which is reflective of strong job growth. To read our full NFP Preview, please go directly to DailyFX. US, UK, French, German and Swiss markets are all closed for Good Friday tomorrow. This means that volume will be particularly low, which could lead to abnormal volatility. The current median forecast for payrolls is 133k, but according to the poll by Bloomberg News, the estimates range from 70k to 240k. Equally reputable names are calling for vastly different results. BNP Paribas expects job growth to be very weak (they have the 70k estimate) while Citigroup expects it to be very strong (hence the 240k). There are number of reasons to believe that job growth will be strong. The 4 week moving average of jobless claims in March was 315k, down from 335k in February. The last time the 4 week moving average of jobless claims were this lean was back in December 2006 and January 2007, when US companies added 226k and 146k jobs to their payrolls respectively. Payroll agency ADP has reported stronger job growth while Challenger Gray and Christmas reported a sharp drop in layoffs. Temperate weather should also bring back construction sector jobs. The only problem that the generally optimistic forecast faces is the possibility that less layoffs does not translate into more hiring. Corporate profits have hit a peak, which would give businesses reason to wait for more economic stability or signs of growth before expanding operations. In addition to the headline number, we have come intimately familiar with the need to watch for revisions because revisions have become the name of the game. Back in February, the dollar rallied not because the headline number was stronger than the market’s forecast by 3k, but because January payrolls were revised up by 35k. The same thing happened when January payrolls were released. The headline number actually fell short of expectations by 39k, but any dollar bearishness was offset by the same 39k upward revision to December payrolls.

Euro – The Euro has broken out of its inverse head and shoulder pattern to hit a new 2 year high against the US dollar. In doing so, it has taken EUR/JPY to 30 pips shy of its highest level since the inception of the Euro. Economic data continues to be firm with German industrial production jumping in the month of February. The market was looking for manufacturing activity to drop by 0.5 percent, but instead, it accelerated by 0.9 percent. This gives the European Central Bank justification to raise rates again as early as May. However, the sharp rise in the Euro over the past few months may force the ECB to reconsider raising rates beyond that. A rising Euro automatically tightens the economy and reduces inflationary pressures. As we get closer to the EUR/USD’s 1.3667 all time high, the more strain the strong currency will put on the export dependent economy. Remember our saying; the path to a stronger Euro is through a weaker one. Along those same lines, the path to a weaker Euro is through stronger one. As for EUR/CHF, even though the rally is looking tired, the currency pair still managed to hit a fresh 7 year high.

British Pound – The British pound tanked against the both the Euro and US dollar. As we expected, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent. The market however believed that the rate decision was more of a coin toss. When the central bank makes no alterations to monetary policy, they also do not issue a statement. We will have to wait until April 18th, when the minutes from the meeting are released to get a better sense of the central bank’s current bias. Traders were also extremely disappointed by the surprise drop in industrial production. Having originally expected industrial activity to accelerate by 0.2 percent, it instead dropped by 0.6 percent. Manufacturing production fell by 0.6 percent compared to 0.3 percent expected. After a week of mostly positive data, any sign of weakness has caught the market by surprise. In fact, traders completely shrugged off the stronger report on house prices even though it remains one of the central bank’s primary focuses. The divergence in the performance of the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone and the UK as well as their monetary policies has helped to trigger a significant rally in EUR/GBP.

Japanese Yen – With no meaningful economic data released, the Japanese Yen quietly lost ground against all of the major currencies. The recent rally in the stock markets has increased the risk appetite of global investors. In doing so, it has also reinitiated demand for short yen positions. Today, the Bank of Japan announced that they are adding two new members to their policy board as the terms of Fukuma and Haru expire. Not much is known about the new members, but traders should become familiar with the names Kamezaki and Nakamura, since their comments could not move markets.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD) – Led by the Canadian dollar, the Commodity currencies performed very strongly today. Canadian employment increased by 55k in the month of March, which was over 3 times larger than analyst expectations. This pushed the employment/population ratio to 63.5 percent, which is the highest in over 30 years. Manufacturing sector activity also accelerated with the IVEY PMI increasing from 60.5 to 67.3. These reports indicate that the Canadian economy is doing very well and in response, the Canadian dollar has skyrocketed. The Australian dollar also hit a fresh 10 year high thanks to the 1.1 percent rise in Australia’s cash card retail index during the month of March. Meanwhile the New Zealand dollar tracked the Aussie higher to mark its own new 2.5 year high.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105