User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday April 6, 2007 - 20:52:22 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market News- Strong US Job Growth Delays Any Chance of a Fed Rate Cut

FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 04-06-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

• Strong US Job Growth Delays Any Chance of a Fed Rate Cut
• ECB President Trichet Could Signal Plans to Raise Rates in May or June
• EUR/JPY Hits a Fresh Record High

US Dollar – The “leading indicators” for non-farm payrolls correctly forecasted exceptionally strong job growth in the month of March and the dollar has skyrocketed in response. In our non-farm payrolls preview, we had said that “all the market needs now is a strong payrolls number to indicate that economic growth is chugging along,” and now, they have it. US companies added 180k jobs to their payrolls last month, which was 50k more than the market was expecting while jobs created in the month of February were revised higher by 16k. The tighter labor market helped to drive the unemployment rate down to 4.4 percent, which is the lowest level since 2001. The other details of the report gave traders no reason to question the strength of the labor market. Average weekly hours increased by 0.5 percent while average hourly earnings grew by 0.3 percent, which was right in line with expectations. The labor market is the backbone of the US economy and as long as people have jobs, they will be far less worried about any contraction in the housing market because at bare minimum, they will be able to pay their mortgages. This will keep interest rates at 5.25 percent and delay any potential rate cut to the fourth quarter. With most markets around the world closed for the Good Friday holiday, the reaction in the currency market was sharp and fast. By 10am, which was right around the close of FX and Interest Rate futures on the CME, trading had grind to a halt. With such a blockbuster number, the Sunday / Monday market open could be exceptional volatile as the rest of the market reacts to the strong report. There is a decent chance for follow through at the open as traders initiate positions. Looking ahead there is a number of Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak next week. Most of them have remained hawkish for some time, but their comments are now validated by data. In general, the Fed believes that the problems in the sub prime sector have not spilled over into the rest of the housing market and for the time being, upside inflation risks remain a bigger problem. This should keep the dollar in demand as we head into a relatively light data week. The only noteworthy data on the calendar are the producer prices and trade balance reports. We also have event risk, namely the Finance Ministers G7 meeting and the release of the minutes from the Fed’s most recent monetary policy meeting.

Euro – German and French markets were closed today which explains why the only meaningful movement that we saw in the EUR/USD today was between 8 to 10 am EST (European markets will remain closed on Monday). Before and after that, the EUR/USD remained confined within a very tight trading range. The only piece of economic data from the Eurozone was the OECD’s release of leading indicators, which remained unchanged at 109.3 for the month of February. In the week ahead, there are far more Eurozone data than there are US data on the calendar. The most important of which is the European Central Bank’s interest rate meeting. Even though rates are not expected to be changed, it will be very important to tune into Trichet’s accompanying press conference. The last time he spoke, he omitted the words strong vigilance from his speech, which indicated to the market that he wasn’t going to follow up the March 14th rate hike with another hike in April. However, rates could be raised in May or June, especially since ECB officials have remained staunchly hawkish. Aside from the ECB meeting, Germany will also be releasing its current account balance and trade balance. France has industrial production, trade and consumer prices due for release. The European Commission will be publishing their first to third quarter GDP forecasts while the Eurozone reports industrial production.

British Pound – Like the European markets, the UK markets were also closed for Good Friday. The British pound underperformed against the US dollar for no reason other than the release of the strong US non-farm payrolls report. The only piece of news from the UK was the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s (NIESR) comments about growth. They said that economic growth probably slowed due to the slower expansion in the service sector. Looking ahead, even though the UK economic calendar is light, the data that they will be releasing next week will shed new light on how many areas of the UK economy are doing. We are expecting BRC retail sales, leading indicators, the RICS house price balance and the trade balance reports. Despite the Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged this past week, economic data has been decent. However, traders looking to buy British pounds should be cautious because the technical setup is very unfavorable as the weekly charts reveal a clear shooting star candlestick formation.

Japanese Yen – The Japanese Yen sold off against the majors despite slightly stronger economic data. Official reserves hit an all time high while the coincident index tripled expectations. Despite the upside surprise, both the leading and coincident economic indexes deteriorated from the prior month, indicating that the economy has worsened. Furthermore, the Yen hit a fresh year to date low against the US dollar and hit a fresh record high in EUR/JPY. This will certainly spur speculation that the Yen could be singled out at the upcoming G7 meeting. Japan has denied this possibility, but it is nevertheless one. The Bank of Japan has a monetary policy announcement on Tuesday where no rate changes are expected. They also have the current account, consumer confidence and CGPI due for release.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD) – Stronger US economic data has also hit the Australian and New Zealand dollars, while the Canadian dollar remained virtually unchanged. The commodity markets were closed and there have been no economic reports from any of these countries. In the week ahead, the few pieces of data from the commodity bloc happen to be fairly important. Australia will be releasing its employment data along with the housing finance report. New Zealand will be reporting retail trade while Canada will be releasing its housing starts, new home price index and trade balance. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Kennedy will also be speaking about monetary policy on Thursday. With the Canadian economy performing very in the recent month, it will be interesting to see if the central banker hints at any possibility of a rate hike.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105