Thursday August 19, 2004 - 23:13:32 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 20th August 2004Price 1.2420
Resistance: 1.2455 ... 1.2485 ... 1.2510 ... 1.2535
Support....: 1.2410 ... 1.2375 ... 1.2335 ... 1.2295
While 1.2400-10 holds, cautiously bullish to 1.2560 and possibly 1.2610-25
The pullback from 1.2511 has been deeper than expected reaching 1.2398. This has caused a little doubt over the bullish stance though with daily cycles rising we still have a bullish preference. To confirm this stance we would need a break back above 1.2455 and then 1.2485 and once seen the rally should continue through to 1.2560 at least. Further resistance is at 1.2620-25 which should be the maximum we see in this recovery.
With yesterday's dip to 1.2398 we have to acknowledge the risk of further losses. This is not our preference but we should be aware that any dip below 1.2374 would likely see follow-through to 1.2335 and probably the 1.2265-95 area. However, we'd see this holding for a small pullback.
Elliott Wave Comments:
August 16th 2004
We have had to adjust the wave count once again in light of Friday's decline and we now consider the possible sideways complex correction as unlikely. The decline to 1.2375 satisfies the 76.4% projection in Wave v and thus completes Wave -a- lower with the implication that the next move, supported by daily cycles, should be higher in Wabe -b-. We feel this has potential to 1.2615-25 at least where the Wave -iv- rests and also represents a 50% retracement of Wave -a-.
August 17th 2004
Yesterday's failure to recover beyond 1.2455 does highlight the risk of the alternate wave count shown in blue in which we are seeing an (a)-(b)-(c) pattern lower which would imply a target at 1.2280. Thus while yesterday's high at 1.2445 holds (implying a Wave iv peak) we must be prepared for the losses to 1.2280 before any meaningful recovery can take place and which would have potential back to the 1.2625-45 (wave (b)) area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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