User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday April 9, 2007 - 21:37:12 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market News - Yen: Drop in Consumer Prices Leaves BoJ No Choice But to be Reactive Instead of Proactive

FXCM DailyFX Fundamentals 04-09-07
Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist


• Yen: Drop in Consumer Prices Leaves BoJ No Choice But to be Reactive Instead of Proactive
• Dollar Rallies as Stocks Hit Six Week Highs
• ECB Trichet Typically Changes His Language Before a Rate Hike

US Dollar - Even though US traders are back at their desks today, currency prices have barely moved with Europe still closed for Easter Monday. Today’s lack of volatility is a testament to how significant European volume is to day to day market activity. London is and has long been the financial center where the largest amount of FX volume is dealt. US traders have expressed their bias by taking the dollar slightly higher, but they could be holding back any aggressive positioning until their European counterparts return to their trading desks tomorrow. The biggest development in the markets today is the sharp drop in oil prices. Traders have shrugged off Iran’s announcement that they plan on starting “industrial-scale” enrichment of uranium to focus on surging supply. After hitting a year to date high of $68 two weeks ago, oil prices have trended lower, with the latest wave of weakness lasting for six consecutive trading days. Although this could ease some of the Federal Reserve’s concern about inflationary pressures, members of the central bank’s policy making committee will most likely stick to their hawkish bias as the stock market hovers around six week highs, the labor market continues to tighten, and the overall housing market holds steady despite the problems in the sub-prime lending sector. Only a few of the Fed Presidents are scheduled to speak directly about the economy and monetary policy this week. Fed Presidents Mishkin, Plosser and Fisher are scheduled to speak tomorrow. Mishkin will be talking about “Monetary Policy and the Dual Mandate” while Fisher and Plosser will be talking about the Fed’s “Credibility and Commitment.” Mishkin is the only one of the three that is on the Fed’s Board of Governors; both Fisher and Plosser are non-voters. Aside from the Fedspeak, there is no data of consequence on the US calendar. The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting held in March is due on Wednesday and we will touch more on that in tomorrow’s Daily Fundamentals.

Euro - German, French and Italian markets all remain closed today for Easter Monday, but this is most likely the calm before the storm as the biggest event risk this week is in the Eurozone. Our center focus is the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is not expected to change interest rates, having only lifted them last month. However with the central bank still on track to raise interest rates in the second quarter, the comments by central bank President Trichet will be particularly important. A look back at Trichet’s changing language between the last two rate hikes in December and March may shed some light on what Trichet will say at the upcoming meeting. Before the most recent rate hike in March, Trichet raised rates in December 2006. At the December meeting, after raising rates, Trichet was optimistic, but intentionally dropped the words “strong vigilance” from the comments that he made in the accompanying press conference. He reconfirmed that he has not used the words “strong vigilance” in any of his comments at the January meeting and rates were left unchanged in both January and February. At the press conference after the February meeting, Trichet reintroduced the words “strong vigilance,” paving the way for the quarter point tightening that we saw in March. This suggests that if Trichet plans on raising rates in May, then he could reintroduce the words “strong vigilance” this Thursday. Anything otherwise would indicate that he wants to delay a rate hike to June. Meanwhile EUR/CHF continues to perform strongly with the currency pair reaching the highest level since the introduction of the Euro this morning. This also marks the ninth consecutive day of strength for a currency pair that typical range trades. Since the launch of the Euro, we have never seen a rally in EUR/CHF last for longer than nine trading days. The last time we saw nine straight days of strength was back in December.

British Pound - Since the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged last week, the British pound has fared poorly against the US dollar and Euro. More specifically, the pound has already seen three consecutive days of weakness against the US dollar. With little economic data of consequence this week, it will be difficult for the currency to find support unless we see a wave of dollar bearishness when European traders return to the markets on Tuesday. Like the Eurozone, the UK was also closed for Easter Monday today. BRC retail sales are due for release tomorrow. Stronger sales could lead to a brief recovery in the pound.

Japanese Yen – The break higher in the Japanese stock market (Nikkei) has helped the Yen recover some of its losses against the Euro, Swiss Franc and British pound. The only currency that the Yen lost ground against was the Australian dollar; it remained virtually unchanged against the US and New Zealand dollars. The weakness in the Yen over the past few weeks reflects the market’s belief that the Bank of Japan will not stand in the way of carry trades. The central bank will be announcing their monetary policy decision tonight and rates are expected to be left unchanged at 0.50 percent. Deflation is rearing its ugly head again as the latest consumer price figures from Tokyo report their first drop since May of 2006. This may be temporary, but even if it is, the central bank will find it difficult to justify a rate hike in an environment where inflation is falling and retail sales remains weak. BoJ Governor Fukui has a press conference scheduled after the rate decision. Even if he is optimistic about the outlook for growth, he will have limited flexibility to be proactive rather than reactive.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD) – Commodity currencies are looking heavy and overextended despite the rise in the Australian dollar today. Both the Aussie and Kiwi have been unable to rally beyond their swing highs and a break below today’s low would open the door for a test of critical support. Gold prices are lower, which is contributing to the weakness, but the bigger story today is the Canadian dollar. Oil prices have been falling for the past 6 trading days and we are finally seeing a reaction in the Canadian dollar. With no CAD data on the calendar tomorrow, we could see an even further extension in today’s USD/CAD rally.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105