Wednesday April 11, 2007 - 05:12:20 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for AUDUSDPrice:
Resistance: 0.8265 ... 0.8280 ... 0.8300 ... 0.8340
Support: 0.8222 ... 0.8200 ... 0.8177 ... 0.8150
Cautiously we feel a cap has been seen though should allow for 0.8280 â€“ below 0.8200 sees losses
Price stalled just 3 points above the 0.8262 target and with a bearish divergence having formed there is a strong chance we have seen a medium term high. The only risk we see is for the 0.8200-22 area supporting and allowing one last attempt to the 0.8280 resistance which should cap. Thus, only a break above 0.8280 would provoke further gains that should then move through to the 0.8340-53 area eventually.
Direct gains have reached the lower target at 0.8202 and thus we are on warning that a possible cap has been seen. Only a move back above 0.8170-00 would cause a final spike to 0.8246-93 before reversing. (April 9th)
We feel the risk of a reversal lower is growing and with a peak just 3 points above our 0.8262 target we now favor a move lower. The only risk is an earlier attempt at 0.8280 which again should cap. First sign of confirmation of losses comes on a break of 0.8222 and then 0.8200. Once seen it should generate additional losses with support then seen at 0.8177 and then the 0.8150 corrective low which should cause a pullback.
There is risk of a larger decline now. Breach of 0.8119-36 would assist and suggest follow-through to the 0.8262 area which should cause a pullback. Breach allows stronger losses to 0.7980 & 0.7940. (April 9th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We are seeing further gains which implies a Wave b was seen at 0.8150 and this should now mean that todayâ€™s rally is part of Wave c to the 61.8%-76.4% projection in Wave v at 0.8246-0.8264.
While this area caps then the first move should be to the area of the Wave b at 0.8150.
Gains saw a cap at 0.8265 and thus we feel the risk of losses is strong. While there is a small risk of seeing 0.8280 first, the next move should see losses back to the prior Wave b at 0.8150 which should force a correction before additional losses are seen.
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