User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday April 11, 2007 - 21:41:43 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Strong Data Fuels Solid Gains in the British Pound

FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 04-11-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Euro Hesitates Ahead of Comments from ECB President Trichet - What to Expect
• Dollar Higher after Release of Hawkish FOMC Minutes
• Strong Data Fuels Solid Gains in the British Pound

US Dollar - The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting was hawkish, yet the dollar is struggling to rally. This tells us that those who want to be long dollars for carry and yield are already long while the rest of the market is more interested in countries that will be raising rates instead of leaving them steady. Even though the minutes say that “further policy firming might prove necessary,” at best, the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent for the next six months as uncertainties in growth and inflation make it nearly impossible to raise rates. Comments from Fed Presidents Lacker, Mishkin, Fisher and Plosser have all been hawkish, confirming that rates will not be reduced anytime soon. At this point, Fed fund futures are only pricing in the probability of one interest rate cut this year. Steady rates could continue to drive demand for US dollars against the Japanese Yen, but against the Euro, British pound and Australian dollars, the greenback could under perform. All three of these central banks are expected to raise interest rates at least once this year. If the UK raises rates, they will once again have a higher yielding currency than the US. Australia will see an even greater yield differential to their favor while the Eurozone will narrow its yield disadvantage against the US. This is a carry seeking world and for the time being, there are more attractive carry opportunities elsewhere. The only piece of US data released today was the monthly budget deficit, which increased from -$85.3 billion to -$96.3billion. Looking ahead, we are only expecting jobless claims and import prices tomorrow - the rise in oil prices last month is expected to drive import prices higher.

Euro - Euro bulls are holding back until they hear from the horse’s mouth (ECB President Trichet) that rates will continue to be increased over the next few months. In order for the EUR/USD to make a run for its all time high of 1.3667, we need to hear some strong words from Trichet. Not only does he need to suggest to the market that rates will be increased in May, but he also needs to indicate that rates will be increased beyond that as well. The hesitancy of the market reflects the possibility that the central bank President could also take a more dovish stance. Why? Because the EUR/USD is trading less than 1 percent away from its all-time high. As an export dependent region, the Eurozone is particularly sensitive to the value of the Euro. In the past, we have said that the path to a stronger Euro is through a weaker one and now, the path to a weaker one is through a strong Euro. The Euro topped out in December 2004 / January 2005 after a series of disappointing economic data. Although the economy is at a much better place now than 2 years ago, it will not be completely vulnerable to the recent run-up in the currency. One of the central bank’s biggest concerns is inflation. A strong Euro automatically tightens the economy and reduces inflationary pressures, alleviating some of the need for the central bank to be exceptionally hawkish. However should ECB President Trichet pacify the markets by reintroducing the words “strong vigilance” back into his vocabulary, not only will the EUR/USD rally, but expect another record high in EUR/JPY.

British Pound - The British pound was the story of the day as it was one of the few currency pairs that managed to rally against the US dollar. Strong economic data reminded the markets that the Bank of England is still on track to raise interest rates later this year. Leading indicators increased by 0.8 percent in the month of February while the BRC sales monitor jumped by 6.2 percent in the month of March. To go from voting 8-1 to leave interest rates unchanged, with the one dissenting voter rooting for a rate cut in March to a rate hike in April was too big of a jump for the central bank to make. However the votes should have leaned closer to a rate hike in April, paving the way for an actual dose of tightening in May or June. We will know more on this come April 18th, when the minutes from the meeting earlier this month is released. In the meantime, as long as UK data continues to come out strongly, the market will look for higher rates, snapping up British pounds in the process. Meanwhile, the pound also received a boost from an FT story revealing that the Treasury is discussing proposals to allow UK firms to repatriate some of their international profits tax free. This reminds us of the tax holiday offered by the US Homeland Investment Act back in 2004. If passed, it would be exceptionally bullish for the British pound. However, it is only being discussed and has not been passed by the Treasury at the moment, so it could be some time before we actually see the flow.

Japanese Yen -Demand for carry trades continues to be one of the most predominant themes in the currency markets with traders driving EUR/JPY to a fresh all time high and AUD/JPY to a new 10 year high. The Yen has sold off significantly over the past month and is showing no signs of stopping. The market may be underestimating the risks that the upcoming G7 meeting poses. No one expects the G7 to criticize the Japanese for allowing their currency to weaken so significantly so quickly, but we are sure that there will be many sideline discussions about it. If any of these comments are caught by the press, we could see a rebound in the Yen. Japanese domestic capital goods price index is due for release tonight. Inflation is expected to tick higher, but it will not be enough to shift the BoJ’s stance.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD) - Having rallied significantly over the past month, we are not surprised to see a mild correction on the back of broad dollar strength in the both the Australian and New Zealand dollars today. There were no surprises in last night’s home loans and investment lending reports, but tonight unemployment number could be a big market mover. The labor market in Australia is very healthy but recent disappointments in economic data have analysts forecasting slower job growth. The risk is for an upside surprise, which will drive strong gains in the Aussie as the market will look to at least 6.50 percent rates this year. Meanwhile the Canadian dollar surged to a fresh year to date on the back of strong housing starts in the month of March. Canadian data has consistently surprised the upside. This has kept the currency shielded from the recent drop in oil prices.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105