Friday April 13, 2007 - 04:34:19 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2181 ... 1.2210 ... 1.2247 ... 1.2282
Support: 1.2131 ... 1.2118 ... 1.2078 ... 1.2029
While 1.2118-31 supports we feel there may be room for a return to 1.2244-50
Losses were seen as preferred and these reached just below the 1.2140-50 support, stalling at 1.2131. We see support here and at 1.2118 and feel this may well hold any losses and if so a move back above 1.2155 should then lead to a test of the 1.2181 pivot area with break there forcing a move back to the 1.2207-12 area which could cause a small pullback ahead of a retest of 1.2244-50. At this point we feel it will hold for a second test lower. Thus only above 1.2250-55 would retest 1.2282.
The failure to break lower is causing the wave structure to develop a potential strong break higher. A move above 1.2281-00 would heighten this with resistance then at 1.2354, 1.2402 and 1.2525. (April 9th:)
Losses reached just below the 1.2140-50 support and we do still see minor risk of this extending to 1.2118. However, at this point we feel it may hold. Thus a more bearish stance will require a break of 1.2118 and if seen would extend the downside to 1.2074-82 where we need to take a little care. Further support is then seen at 1.2029-50 which should hold if seen.
We have seen losses that have moved below 1.2145 but the nature of the decline is a little uncertain and before we get further bearish we will need a break below 1.2229-50. (April 13th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
It certainly looks as if we may have seen a Wave â€“x- at the 61.8% retracement at 1.2281. This would imply additional losses but since we have had only two ABC structures higher it may be prudent to keep in mind the possibility of a third ABC pattern.
Price has reached a 76.4% retracement at 1.2250 and this may just imply a triangle which would see support around 1.2140-50. Thus use this as a clue â€“ below would imply losses to the 1.2029-34 area being a 138.2% projection in a potential Wave iii of a new Wave (a) lower.
Care is required at this point which could still see a return to 1.2244-50 in an expanded flat. Given the wave structures elsewhere we would need to see break of the wave equality target at 1.2068.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."