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Friday April 13, 2007 - 16:16:52 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (13 April 2007)



The euro launched higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3550 level and was supported around the US$ 1.3480 level. The common currency is up over 150 pips this week and today printed at its strongest level since January 2005. Notably, the pair was about 115 pips from its all-time high around the $1.3665 level before coming off. The pair moved to multi-year highs after the release of U.S. economic data that saw the March headline producer price index rise 1.0%, down from 1.3% in February. The core PPI rate, however, was unchanged and lower-than-expected. Over the past twelve months through March, headline PPI is up 3.2% while the core PPI is up 1.7% y/y. Fed policymakers are likely to be pleased with the pullback in wholesale inflation and await upcoming consumer price inflation data. Other data released today saw the February trade gap fall to 0.7% from US$ 58.4 billion while the January trade gap was downwardly revised to US$ 58.9 billion. Also, the mid-April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 85.3 from 88.4 in March while the inflation expectations sub-index rose to 3.3 from 2.9. Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-13 February industrial output was 0.6% m/m and 4.1% y/y. Also, French March CPI was up 0.4% m/m and 1.2% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3445 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥118.20 level and was capped around the ¥119.15 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just below the 50% retracement of the move from ¥114.45 to ¥122.15. All eyes are on the Group of Seven meetings in Washington, D.C. this weekend to see if global policymakers go beyond the “one-way bets” comment from the previous G7 communiqué. Most traders are speculating policymakers will not talk up the yen or Asian currencies much more than they did last time. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui yesterday said a rise in currencies “is not necessarily beneficial.” The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.01% to close at ¥17,363.95. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥118.30 level. The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥161.30 level and was supported around the ¥159.90 level. The British pound and Swiss franc strengthened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥236.50 and ¥98.40 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.7217 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.7260. U.S. and Chinese officials will meet on Monday to discuss the Bush administration’s recent penalties against certain Chinese goods and China’s massive trade surplus.



The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9885 level and was supported around the $1.9780 level. Cable reached its highest level since 23 January today and traders are eyeing the $1.9915 level as the pair’s next upside target. Data released in the U.K. saw IDS median pay settlements remain unchanged at 3.5% in the three months to March. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9740 level. The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6825 level and was supported around the ₤0.6805 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2065 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2185 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2435 to CHF 1.2025. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2215 level. The euro and British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6435 and CHF 2.4135 levels, respectively.

A$

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.8335 level and was supported around the US$ 0.8285 level. Today’s intraday high was just above the high reached in October 1990 and prior to that, the pair has not been this strong since February 1989. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8265 level.

C$

The Canadian dollar weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.1395 level and was supported around the C$ 1.1330 level. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the C$ 1.1285 level.



Gold/ Silver

Gold gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 683.40 level and was supported around the $676.00 figure. The dollar’s sell-off vis-à-vis the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar resulted in gold’s gains. Silver moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the US$ 14.07 level and was supported around the $13.78 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for May delivery tested offers around the US$ 64.55 level and was supported around the $63.61 level. Traders drove the price higher on account of U.S. refinery problems in California, Texas, and Louisiana. Also, Nigeria has put its military on command ahead of upcoming July elections and this is also keeping the price elevated.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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