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Monday April 16, 2007 - 10:31:01 GMT
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Fill those risk appetites

Key News
• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. March Retail Sales. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +0.1%.
8:30a.m. March Retail Sales, Ex-Autos. Expected: +0.8%. Previous: -0.1%.
8:30a.m Apr NY Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: 1.85.
9:00a.m. Feb Treasury International Capital Flows. $74.6B.
10:00a.m. Feb Business Inventories. Previous: +0.2%
1:00p.m. Apr NAHB Housing Index. Previous: 36.


“The playoffs for the race to the Stanley Cup are on – and Vancouver has a team in the running. They are carrying longer odds than the chances the Polish zloty will become the world’s reserve currency!”

Tom Crone; a friend from Vancouver who loves his hockey and trading

FX Trading – Fill those risk appetites

Based on the G-7 meeting this weekend, it continues to be “all good” out there. A wink and nod was given to the global imbalance theme. And yes, the Chinese currency’s persistence “undervaluation” has become seeming boilerplate on the agenda. But, overall, the message was clear sailing ahead. Keep on doing what you’re doing and don’t worry.

Sell yen and greenback; buy everything else. Fill those risk appetites.

From The Economist magazine, April 14th:

“Since 2003, being blasé has been the most profitable strategy. Risky assets have performed well; for example, the spreads on emerging-market debt recently hit an all-time low. Market shocks have been subdued. Even February 27th's 400-point fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average came low down the historical league table of percentage daily falls.

“But what might cause risk appetite to change and volatility to soar? The simple answer is Harold Macmillan's phrase, ‘Events, dear boy, events’, perhaps some geopolitical incident or unexpected corporate failure. Emerging-market debt would be a big casualty of such a shift. The IMF reckons that, if volatility moved to two standard deviations above its post-1990 average, emerging-market debt spreads would more than double. Something to worry about indeed.”

The yen made a fresh all-time high against the euro today. And as we know, the yen has become the poster child for global growth, low volatility, and plenty of liquidity:

USDJPY Daily Chart (H&S)

We noticed a very informative Letter to the Editor recently in the Financial Times, penned by Lombard Street Research in response to an article earlier in the week suggesting rates in Japan must stay low, lest deflation rear its ugly head there [the premise behind the yen carry trade argument]. The analysts from Lombard argue low rates have hurt the Japanese consumer. And interest rates won’t hurt capital spending. Here is an excerpt:

“Normalizing interest rates from ½ per cent to 3 per cent could add some 3 per cent to consumer spending and 2 per cent to GDP. This would not dent capital investment; rather the reverse. The yen would appreciate massively, but the damage to net exports could and should be offset by a tax cut; last year’s public spending fell 2 per cent while tax yield rose 8 per cent. Domestic demand would take over from export-led growth, so the budget deficit would shrink.”

“The deflationary risk lies in keeping rates artificially low while the structural budget deficit is too aggressively addressed. The authorities would boost the economy by aggressively raising rates—and do the world a favour in the process.”

Hmmm! It seems to make sense. It could be reason why US Treasury Secretary Paulson and the rest of the G-7 don’t seem too concerned about the yen.

Jack Crooks


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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