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Monday April 16, 2007 - 10:35:27 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:05 EDT

Key Points
• JPY weaker after G7, but 120.00 on USD-JPY needs to break to offer further encouragement.
• EUR-USD, EUR-JPY advance further overnight.
• US data this week will be significant in determining whether recent USD weakness can continue.
• Strong UK PPI data pushes cable to highest since 1992.
• Riksbank minutes boost SEK.
• US retail sales, NY Fed index, TIC portfolio data, NAHB index feature today.

Market Outlook

The lack of any fresh message of concern from G7 about ongoing JPY weakness has spurred EUR-JPY on to new highs overnight (162.43), while USD-JPY has also been firm, touching 119.70. However, while the relative interest rate arguments mean that the JPY is still vulnerable, it is not clear whether weakness will extend immediately. A key factor for USD-JPY will be whether it can push beyond the current resistance area at 119.50-120.00. This type of positive signal is required to instill confidence about the possibility of further advances.

EUR-JPY will also be dependent on the constraints presented by EUR-USD, which while pushing ahead further overnight, is not that far from the Dec 2004 high of 1.3666. How EUR-USD fares this week will depend upon the emergence of any fresh signals about the state of the US economy and there are several releases scheduled today (see below for preview).

The G7 communiqué did reiterate the comment made in February that “Japan's recovery is on track and expected to continue. We remain confident that the implications of these developments will be recognized by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessments of risks.”This sort of comment could be used by some officials as a platform to object to further JPY weakness, although there does not seem to be a firm consensus amongst G7 about the need to protest against the market’s natural forces.

GBP has been the main performer in Europe this morning, with a strong set of PPI numbers driving cable to the highest level seen since early September 1992, just before GBP was pulled out of the ERM. This morning’s data will add to concerns held by the MPC about the way in which pricing pressure is developing in the manufacturing sector, despite the fact that wage growth has remained subdued. Indeed, this is something that has already been highlighted by recent CBI surveys (see chart). The data strongly reinforces the likelihood of a further rate hike in May. A test of 2.00 now looks likely on cable in the very short-term.

The SEKwas boosted by the revelation in the latest Riksbank minutes that one member (Oberg) had voted for a rate hike at the Mar 29 meeting. This runs counter to the sentiment that developed in February when the Riksbank guided interest rate expectations lower in its Inflation Report. Expectations for 3-mth money in Dec are up around 6bps this morning to stand at 4.06% and not too far from the high of 4.15% seen in January. Such expectations fell as low as 3.78% in early March. The Riksbank’s repo rate is currently at 3.25%. EUR-SEK has fallen sharply on today’s news and some downside risk to 9.15-9.16 will remain in place in the short-term as long as it stays below 9.25.

Day Ahead
US – a number of releases are due today, including retail sales, the NY Fed survey, TIC portfolio data, business inventories and sales and the NAHB housing index. There will be particular focus on the NY Fed index and the retail sales data to see whether spending and economic activity has decelerated any further. The NY Fed index has been volatile in recent months (Dec 22.2, Jan 9.1, Feb 24.4, Mar 1.9) so the market may be a little hesitant in reading too much into any developments. Retail sales will be more interesting and the market is expecting a rebound after the softer weather-related showing experienced in February.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Retail sales (Mar) m/m 08.30 +0.6%
US Retail sales ex-autos (Mar) m/m 08.30 +0.9%
US NY Fed index (Apr) 08.30 +7.5
US Fed’s Plosser spks on econ 08.45
US TIC intl portfolio balance (Feb) 09.00 $75bn
US Fed’s Fisher speaks 09.45
US Business inventories (Feb) m/m 10.00 +0.3%
US Business sales (Feb) m/m 10.00 -0.7% last
EU ECB’s Trichet speaks 12.00
US NAHB index (Apr) m/m 13.00 35

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB Rightmove house prices (Apr) y/y +15.0% +12.2% last
JP Ind prod (Feb, final) m/m +0.7% -0.2%
NO Trade balance (Mar) NOK27.2bn NOK25.9bn
GB PPI input (Mar) m/m +1.2% +0.9%
GB PPI output (Mar) m/m +0.6% +0.3%
GB PPI output core (Mar) y/y +2.9% +2.7%
GB DCLG house prices (Feb) y/y +12.1% +11.3%
EU CPI (Mar) y/y +1.9% +1.9%
EU CPI ex-energy/fresh food (Mar) y/y +1.9% +1.9%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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