User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday April 16, 2007 - 20:58:40 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Yen: Do Not Expect any Verbal Intervention from Japan

DailyFX Fundamentals 04-16-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• US Dollar: Will Stronger Data Help the Dollar?
• Euro Extends Rally as ECB Officials Continue to Talk of Need for Higher Rates
• Yen: Do Not Expect any Verbal Intervention from Japan

US Dollar- Foreign exchange traders are so hungry for yield and carry that they completely shrugged off today’s batch of US data. Carry traders received a burst of confidence after the Group of Seven left the language in their communiqué about currencies unchanged. Their lack of official concern for yen weakness or euro strength was just what the market needed to push EUR/JPY to another record high and the EUR/USD further towards its 1.3667 all time high. Even though the US economic calendar is chock full of data over the next few days, the US dollar may not be the story of the week. We all know exactly where the Federal Reserve stands on rates, but what we do not know is how much further these carry trades can extend. As we near 100 in AUD/JPY, 120 in USD/JPY and 240 in GBP/JPY, the one way moves are becoming exhaustive, luring in many top pickers in the process. Carry has been and will continue to remain the main focus of the market as each piece of incoming US data does little to sway the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Higher inflation will prevent the central bank from cutting rates while risks of a housing market slowdown will prevent them from raising rates. This explains why the dollar barely budged after today’s economic releases. Retail sales were stronger than expected, but the strength contained underlying weakness as higher oil prices drove up gas station receipts. Meanwhile the Empire State manufacturing survey reported a far smaller improvement in the month of April, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is still struggling to recover. The Treasury International Capital flow data reported softer demand for long term US securities ($58.1 billion compared to $98.8 billion in January) due to the pullback in the stock market in February and concerns about the sub prime sector, however the data was not as bad as the headline number suggests since China, the UK and Japan were big buyers. Finally, we had the NAHB housing market index, which dropped to 33 from 36, reviving concerns about the housing market. Looking ahead, we are expecting consumer prices, housing starts, building permits and industrial production tomorrow. Like today, the reports are expected to be conflicting with consumer prices accelerating due to higher oil prices in March while the housing market and industrial production see slower growth. These reports should give the Fed further reason to stand pat and keep the dollar vulnerable to the demand for carry.

Euro - The Euro continued to charge higher as stronger economic data and hawkish comments from ECB officials continued to fuel demand for euros over dollars. The market’s demand is mainly focused on countries that are looking to raise interest rates and the Eurozone fits the bill nicely. Overnight, consumer prices increased by 0.7 percent, which was more than the market expected while French business sentiment climbed to 112 from 110. ECB members Weber and Quaden were both optimistic about economic growth with Weber openly contemplating raising their GDP forecast for Germany and Quaden confirming that a further increase in interest rates is very likely. Tomorrow we are expecting the German and Eurozone ZEW survey of analyst sentiment. The consensus forecast is calling for an increase in analyst sentiment thanks to recent upside surprises in growth and rally in the stock market. However since analysts are always forward looking, we could actually see a downward surprise since the strong Euro and outlook for higher interest rates could crimp growth in the months to come. Meanwhile Swiss National Bank President Roth signaled the possibility of further rate hikes this year. With the unemployment rate below 3 percent and the weak currency driving import prices higher, he indicated that the SNB has to be “vigilant.” The Swiss franc has not reacted to his comments because the strong demand for long EUR/CHF carry trades have kept the CHF pressured, but further gains could be limited.

British Pound - The British pound registered gains against the US dollar for the fifth consecutive trading day thanks to a stronger than expected rise in UK producer prices last month. We actually believe that the British pound will be one of the major stories this week as the much awaited release of the minutes from this month’s monetary policy meeting is expected to reflect a more hawkish voting record. What this means that is that it should pave the way for the Bank of England to raise interest rates in May or June. The growth of producer prices on both a core and headline number was faster than expected in the month of March. Housing market reports also revealed increases in house prices. This suggests that we could see a rise in consumer prices tomorrow as well. All we need is for employment to be hotter on Wednesday and consumer spending to increase strongly on Friday and we could see the GBP/USD rise to 2.00.

Japanese Yen - Stronger Japanese industrial production did little to stem the slide in the Japanese Yen. The currency pair extended to fresh lows against the Euro after the G7 meeting. Adding salt to the wound, US Treasury Secretary Paulson said that it was “not his job to comment on the carry trade,” while Finance Minister Omi said that no one felt that the Yen was a problem. The Japanese are enjoying the benefits that a weak Yen brings to their economy and with growth still struggling to improve, we doubt that they will do anything to stop it. Expect strong earnings from Japanese exporters like Toyota and economic data to surprise to the upside in the months to come.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD) - Even though the Canadian and New Zealand dollars continued to rallied today, we are beginning to see a turn in the Australian dollar. Interestingly enough, oil prices are lower while gold prices are higher. The Canadian economy has been performing well and we are finally seeing the CAD reflect that strength. Meanwhile the market is snapping up New Zealand dollars ahead of tomorrow’s consumer price report. CPI is expected to jump back into positive territory in the first quarter after dipping in the fourth. This will raise speculation of whether the RBNZ will need to hike rates again this year. The rally in the Australian dollar is simply getting exhausted. With no major data this week, the fate of the Aussie could be dependent on the overall demand for high yielders.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105