User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday April 17, 2007 - 21:19:32 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Euro Inching Towards Record Highs as US Data Disappoints

DailyFX Fundamentals 04-17-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

• Euro Inching Towards Record Highs as US Data Disappoints
• British Pound Hits 15 Year High, Will it Continue to Rise?
• Yen Pairs Show Signs of Exhaustion, Raising Concerns that Carry Trades Have Peaked

US Dollar- Strong data hasn’t helped the US dollar and today, weak data has actually hurt it. Headline consumer prices accelerated in the month of March, but core prices grew less than expected. The one tenth of a percentage point disappointment was enough for bears to pounce on the dollar once again. Combine that with the drop in industrial production in the month of March and it is hardly surprising that the US dollar reversed all of yesterday’s gains against the Japanese Yen and extended its losses against the Euro, British pound, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. Furthermore the market completely shrugged off the stronger housing market data and the continued rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which exceeded its all-time closing high. In the past, USD/JPY and the Dow have moved in lockstep with the currency pair often acting as a leading indicator for the movements in the stock market. Therefore today’s exhaustion in nearly all of the Yen pairs including USD/JPY could actually be signaling a potential exhaustion in the Dow. Meanwhile with no more significant US data due on the calendar this week, there is nothing standing in the way of further losses. Whether this happens or not will be dependent upon how much momentum there is left in the Euro and British pound rally and whether carry trades are just pausing today or preparing for a turn. The US dollar and the health of the US economy are secondary at the moment as the stance of the Federal Reserve is crystal clear. They have zero flexibility to raise rates to combat inflation or to lower rates to spur growth. For the time being, we have no reason to believe that the demand for carry trades has hit their peak, but tonight we have New Zealand consumer prices which could be the key to determining whether these trades continue. As one of the most sought after currencies in the latest carry trade wave, the consumer price release will either confirm or deny the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s need to raise interest rates.

Euro – Each piece of stronger Eurozone data only validates the European Central Bank’s need to continue raising interest rates. This morning, the German ZEW survey climbed from 5.8 to 16.5 in the month of March while the trade deficit narrowed from -7.0B to -1.7B in February. Both of these numbers were sharply better than expected, helping to send the EUR/USD 50 pips closer to its all time record high. According to the head of the ZEW, even though investors expect the Euro to continue to rise and for interest rates to be increased, the current level of rates is still accommodative and will not take a toll on growth. He actually even went one step further by saying that interest rates would need to be above 4 percent before it starts having a drag on growth. Recent comments by members of the European Central Bank suggest that they may be feeling the same way. With the GBP/USD clearing psychologically significant levels, the EUR/USD may be tempted to do the same. The currency pair’s inability to close above yesterday’s 1.3578 high is a bit worrisome, so we would definitely need to see a break above that level tomorrow before we target the 1.3667 2004 high. There is no significant data on the calendar tomorrow aside from a speech by ECB member Mersch. Meanwhile, Switzerland reported stronger than expected retail sales in the month of February. This surprise has helped to put a dent into the recent rallies of EUR/CHF and CHF/JPY. The Swiss National Bank reiterated their hawkish bias yesterday morning and today’s today confirms that the economy is strong enough to warrant a rate hike.

British Pound – The British pound is trading at 15 year highs and the burning question on everyone's mind is "How Much Further Can it Rise?" To answer this question, see our Special Report. The last time the currency was trading at this level against the US dollar was right before the country’s withdrawal from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and things were much different then than they are now. The UK economy is now on a far stronger footing with a low risk of a major reversal. With the minutes from the Bank of England monetary policy meeting still due for release along with employment and retail sales data, there are sufficient fundamental catalyst to fuel further gains. The market needs validation that there was a more hawkish voting record at the last monetary policy meeting to confirm that the next move will come in May. If the votes remain at 8-1 with the one dissenter (Blanchflower) still favoring a rate cut, expect to see the GBP/USD slip back below 2.0 like a falling knife because this will signal hesitancy within the policy committee. Any sign of weakness as the currency pair attempts to develop a solid footing above that key level could trigger a wave of profit taking. Therefore we need to first see evidence that the labor market remains strong and consumer spending steady before the GBP/USD can take aim at its 26 year highs of 2.4460.

Japanese Yen – The Yen crosses are finally showing signs of weakness, but it may still be far too early to call a top. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui was on the wires last night, but he failed to commit to anything and simply noted that interest rates are very accommodative at the moment and warned that they are still looking to raise interest rates. The only piece of Japanese data released last night was consumer confidence, which dropped from 48.6 to 47.2. The economy is still struggling at a time when signs of inflation remain minimal. Leading indicators are due for release tonight and we doubt that this will have much of an impact on the Yen. Instead, flows and sentiment will be the key. If for some reason, carry traders find a reason to take profits at current levels, a short term or long term turn could be sharp.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD) – The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars continued to perform strongly against the US dollar despite the fact that oil and gold prices are lower. Australian business confidence was exceptionally strong in the first quarter, rising from 4.0 to 10. This indicates that the economy is doing well, which supports the central bank’s need to raise interest rates. New Zealand is expecting consumer prices tonight. This will be key to not only whether the Kiwi continues to rally, but potentially also whether carry trades will continue to extend. Canada has net foreign purchases of Canadian securities data due for release tomorrow. This is not likely to impact the CAD as Thursday’s consumer price data is the more important release this week.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105