Thursday April 19, 2007 - 03:59:47 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for GBPUSDPrice:
Resistance: 2.0060 ... 2.0093 ... 2.0138 ... 2.0166
Support: 2.0030 ... 2.0012 ... 1.9974 ... 1.9929
Cautiously we are bearish which should mean the 2.0093-2.0138 area should remain capping
Price stalled a few points below the 2.0138 resistance and this is a very, very significant level. If we are to see any further gains we must see the 2.0030 remain intact and cause a reversal back above 2.0060 and then 2.0093 to generate a retest of the 2.0131-38 resistance. Above here would retain the overall bullish tone and allow follow-through to 2.0194 and 2.0225.
We have achieved the 2.0078 target â€“ and just a bit more. We have to be aware of acceleration higher â€“ but only above 2.0138 confirms and suggests 2.0229 and then higher with 2.05 a possible target. (April 18th)
In some ways we are rather surprised by the peak at 2.0131 as this if this remains intact over the coming weeks it implies a long term bearish move. For now we will concentrate on support at 2.0030 which has just been tested. If this breaks then look for follow-through to 1.9974 at least â€“ care as this could cause a pullback. Breach would extend lower once again to 1.9900-30 which needs to hold to keep alive any direct medium term bullish picture.
We have seen test of the 2.0078 target but also a small breach. We could take a test of 2.0092-00 and at most 2.0138 but for the downside to develop we require a break below 1.9900 to confirm larger losses. (April 18th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Well, well, wellâ€¦ the 2.0138 resistance has capped. It is still too early to confirm but this represented a 23.6% expansion of the decline from 1.9548 to 1.7046. If it remains intact over the coming 2-3 months it would actually imply a multi-month decline back to 1.70â€¦
Too early to even rely on that but for now we feel the evidence suggests we should see losses. A small 138.2% projection has been tested at 2.0030 this morning and if this breaks we should begin to see more losses towards an alternative possible Wave iv at 1.9900-30 (being a 50%-58.6% retracement.) Thus, we await this break to confirm a medium term bearish picture.
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