User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday April 19, 2007 - 04:36:23 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Aussie Teetering Dangerously High

Key News

• U.K. Pound Touches Highest In More than Quarter Century on Bank Minutes – (Bloomberg)
• Swiss Franc Gains Versus Euro a Second Day as Investors Shun Risky Assets – (Bloomberg)
• Fannie and Freddie Polish Image With Subprime-Loan Purchases – (WSJ)

• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For April 14 Week. Previous: +19K.
10:00a.m. March Conf Board Leading Indicators. Previous: -0.5%.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For April 7 Week. Previous: -0.4%.
12:00p.m. April Philadelphia Fed Business Index. Previous: 0.2.


Quotable
“They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."

Ben Franklin

FX Trading – Aussie Teetering Dangerously High

It’s been a while since anyone had a good feeling about domestic consumption in Japan. And for just as long, interest rates have been held down in hopes of allowing economic growth to sprout up. That’s kept the yen depressed and allowed Japan’s export market to flourish.

But what happens if Japan’s exports and Japan’s consumption habits synch?

First of all, it would be quite reassuring if this two-headed economic-growth warrior could exist for more than a month. This way, market watchers couldn’t comfortably dismiss the event as a fluke and resume their current behavior. Should we, however, start to notice a developing trend in all-around positive economic growth -- something Japan’s lacked for many years now – it could really shake up the currency markets. The effects of which would quickly infest other asset markets for sure. The complacency that’s befallen the markets would really start to bite.

But let’s limit our view to just the currency markets. Carry-trades have no doubt been one of the dominating themes in our analysis of currencies since the year began. This strategy will certainly feel the largest impact should the Bank of Japan adopt a steady monetary policy tightening campaign with hopes of combating inflation and keeping the economy fit.

In fact, two separate reports, one on Tuesday and one yesterday, revealed inflation may be growing faster than expected and consumer demand is surprisingly improving. An official report next week could show that core consumer prices in Japan have risen. Moreover, in February, demand for services rose to a record, far outpacing any estimates set forth by analysts. Additionally, the BOJ will report on interest rates next week [queue Jeopardy music.]

And don’t forget that the Australian dollar, currently yielding a hefty 6.25%, is a huge beneficiary of carry trades – borrowing where the money is cheap, investing where the money is easy.

Yet even if Japan disappoints and rates stay put, we still can’t seem to take our eye off of the Aussie. It’s at 17-year highs, in nose-bleed territory for sure, and looks very vulnerable to us. And just as some feel about the Australian equity markets, which are putting in record highs, we feel the Australian dollar is radically overextended. We ask ourselves: is there anyone left, not already positioned long-the-Aussie, who can help it maintain its relentless climb? Or are we close to seeing buying interest top out and a correction ensue?

Our money is on the latter. After too long looking down from atop the high-dive one starts to get a little dizzy. A brutal belly-flop could be in the Aussie’s future. But be ready for the cannonball!




John Ross Crooks III



Reader Response to yesterday’s S&P Index relative valuation to the US$ Index:

“Traditionally, the relative valuations of a national currency are set by long-term trade deficits and surpluses: If a country runs a persistent trade deficit, its currency piles up in the external financial system. The resulting oversupply causes the market price of the currency to decline, which causes that country’s exports to become more competitive and which causes that country to import less and this eventually eliminates the trade deficit. It’s a very nice theory of trade equilibrium.

“As they say in New York, Fuggetabouddit.

“In the real world, relative values of foreign currencies are set by the market, whose behavior is well-known to be non-rational. In the real world, the US gets to run large, persistent trade deficits forever, because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Why is the dollar the world’s reserve currency? Because if you complain about it too much, the US Air Force and the US Navy will blow your skanky ass away. Ask Saddam, or Noriega. I am unaware of any theory of foreign currency valuations which incorporates this particular set of factors.

“Right now, trade does not seem to have any effect on relative currency valuations. The primary factor appears to be differential interest rates and the secondary factor is expectations regarding future trends in interest rates. In particular, people are borrowing in yen as fast as they can, selling the yen, and buying Pounds, NZ Dollars, or Aus Dollars. This is the famous “carry trade”. What is interesting is the published analysis: Japan’s economy is still weak and the central bank is under considerable political pressure to not raise interest rates. Meanwhile, inflation in the UK has spiked up in the last few weeks, and there is a perceived bias towards increasing the interest rates there, which makes the currency more attractive as a destination for short-term investment. In other words, the supply of yen is coming from sources which have nothing to do with trade, and inflation in the UK is causing the market value of the pound to go up. Go figure.”

D.C.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105