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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:25 EDT

Key Points
• Strong Japanese and Chinese data triggers a resumption of the corrective mood that was threatening to develop yesterday.
• High-yielders should eventually regain strength, but general volatility and possibly more weakness look likely initially.
• Canadian CPI, Philly Fed today’s data features.

Market Outlook

Stronger than expected Japanese data and rumours of strength in some key Chinese releases moved markets in Asia and these developments extended further in Europe. In FX, the JPY has been the main mover with a much stronger than expected tertiary activity index causing the JPY to strengthen across the board. This had been threatening for most of yesterday, much to the detriment of high-yielding currencies like the AUD and the NZD, but reversed late on in the US session when US equity indices closed higher. Both the AUD and the NZD were strong around the US close (AUD reaching 0.8390 at one point, NZD at 0.7485), while USD-JPY traded as high as 118.74. However, the situation turned around dramatically following the release of the Japanese data, with the JPY strengthening against most currencies and the AUD and the NZD falling back sharply against the USD.

Developments in China also contributed to the sense of unease in global markets. A whole raft of indicators were set for release last night, but the government delayed them until just after the local stock market close (8.00 am London time). The delay itself (and local media reports about a +3.3% CPI outcome) sparked rumours that the data would be very strong and the related fears about the implications for offsetting policy measures saw local Chinese equity indices falling more than 4.5%. The data was indeed strong, with CPI rising to +3.3% from +2.7% and GDP (+11.1%) also well ahead of expectations. The Stats Bureau said that measures were needed to prevent overheating.

The price action over the past 24 hours has been symptomatic of an overextended market, but given that most of the fundamental developments behind the initial moves (rising rate expectations in the non-USD bloc) remain in place, there is likely to be buying interest on any dips. This should make for good two-way markets and a fair amount of volatility over the coming week or so. However, for today the onus is likely to be for more corrective pressure, with the JPY and the CHF likely be favoured in particular over the high-yielders. Equity markets have also fallen back overnight and if this continues today (S&P 500 future is currently off 9 points overnight) it could supplement the corrective mood. EUR-USD is looking more stable, but some corrective pressure could also creep in there as well if 1.3525 gives way. Further support is at 1.3260-70. Other important short-term support levels are as follows – cable 1.9900-30, AUD 0.8230-60, NZD 0.7300-35, USD-JPY 117.50 and 117.00, EUR-JPY 159.60 and 159.00.

Day Ahead
US – the Philly Fed survey is today’s main feature, with the headline index a more stable entity than its NY Fed equivalent, which has been showing volatility in recent months. It follows that the market will generally pay more attention to the Philly over the NY Fed index and any move outside recent parameters should generate some market impact. +8.3/-2.3 has been the high-low on this index over the past six months. There will also be a focus on the ‘prices received’ category, which is a better measure of PPI for finished and intermediate goods than the ‘prices paid’ (raw materials) component of the ISM. The +16.3 number recorded last month was the highest since October, but still looks relatively low compared to the levels seen in recent years.

Canada – the market is expecting a pullback in core CPI to +2.3% after the sharp rise seen last month to +2.4%. However, unless there is a major surprise, market impact looks like being limited. USD-CAD has remained soft over the past couple of weeks, due to the fact that the market has been carrying (and being squeezed out of) prior long positioning. The big near-term support level on USD-CAD is at 1.1180, with 1.1255 offering initial protection. One of these should hold in the short-term.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA CPI (Mar) y/y 07.00 +2.1%
CA CPIX (Mar) y/y 07.00 +2.2%
US Initial claims (w/e Apr 14) 08.30 322k
US Continuing claims (w/e Apr 7) 08.30 2527k last
CA Wholesale sales (Feb) 08.30 +0.2%
US Lead indicators (Mar) m/m 10.00 +0.1%
US Philly Fed index (Apr) 12.00 2.0
US Fed’s Yellen spks on local issues 15.50
JP All industry (Feb) m/m 19.50 -0.3%
US Fed’s Fisher spks on Japan 20.30

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Tertiary index (Feb) m/m +1.0% -0.4%
DE PPI (Mar) y/y +2.5% +2.7%
CN GDP (Q1) y/y +11.1% +10.4%
CN CPI (Mar) y/y +3.3% +2.8%
IT Ind orders (Feb) m/m -0.3% +1.3%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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