Monday April 23, 2007 - 05:24:37 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDJPYPrice:
Resistance: 119.00 ... 119.31 ... 119.60 ... 119.85
Support: 118.52 ... 118.27 ... 117.92 ... 117.60
119.00 has capped â€“ allow for 119.31 but overall the downside is more likely to below 117.60
We have seen the 119.00 level hold and this may well remain intact. However, we also note resistance around 119.31. Therefore any bullish stance will require a move above 119.31 which if seen would spur price back to the 119.85 high and probably further towards an eventual 120.40-50 target which should cap. Next resistance is then found at 121.18-34.
We feel there is a strong chance we saw a peak at 119.85. Thus only while 117.50-60 remains intact is there any chance we see a final attempt higher above 119.85 and to 120.25-53. (April 20th)
We feel we are seeing the end of the current correction higher with the 119.00 and 119.31 resistance points likely to hold. Thus from there a break back below 118.52-62 would encourage price back lower towards 117.60-90 which should provide a small pullback. Next support lies at much further lower at 116.70-74.
Breach of 118.10 suggests that 119.85 was a major peak and thus the next few weeks should see a retest of the 115.16 low and eventual break for 113.21-42. (April 19th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We feel the move to 117.60 was deep enough to suggest the downside has started and we feel the 61.8% retracement at 119.00 should cap for additional losses initially back to 117.60 and on breach towards 116.27-33 and probably 115.16-40.
The 119.00 level was a 61.8% retracement of the Wave â€“a- decline. We should be aware of the 76.4% retracement at 119.31. With these peaks holding we expect to see a 161.8% projection in Wave â€“c- to 115.30-60.
Only an earlier break above 119.85 extends the upside to the 76.4% retracement in Wave (b) at 120.52.
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