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Monday April 23, 2007 - 09:39:33 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Central Bank flows ease and profit-taking begins as Euro slips; Euro still eyes all-time tradable high of 1.3670.
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
The Dollar rose on Friday attempting to recoup some of its losses after a 10-day down trend. The dollar fell after on large flows by central banks to diversify reserves, favoring counter currencies such as the Euro, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD. Much of public money has not catalyzed this trend; it remains to be seen whether private investors will cause a further dollar sell-off or begin buying at these low levels. However, with cyclical strength in Europe and further weak numbers from the US, the dollar down-trend remains intact. Rumors of Bank of England talk to raise rates by 50 bp have not triggered any market reaction, yet.
Gold made an 11-month high reaching $694/oz in the spot market following the recent dollar weakness. Generally moving in the opposite direction to the dollar, Gold shows no signs of turning back down as the greenback remains weak and every pullback in the uptrend has been very well supported; Gold has made higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of March.
USDJPY moved lower as Standard & Poor's upgraded Japan's debt rating. A daily close below the trend line of 118.63 would confirm a bearish move. However, look for a push and close above 119.05 for a bounce back into the upward channel.
Today's Key Issues:
GBP 08:30 GMT: M4 Money Supply (MoM, YoY) (March)
GBP 08:30 GMT: Sterling lending (March)
GBP 08:30 GMT: BBA Net Consumer Credit (March)
GBP 08:30 GMT: BBA Net Mortgage Lending (March)
EUR 09:00 GMT: Euro-zone Budget Def/GBP ratio (Dec. 31)
EUR 09:00 GMT: Euro-zone Government Debt/GBP ratio (Dec. 31)
EUR 17:00 GMT: ECB's Papdemos presents annual report in Strasbourg
The Risk Today:
EurUsd The pair has moved lower from the overbought zone, however a sell-off below 1.3400 would be needed to confirm any trend changes. EurUsd remains bullish with a 1.3520 minor support. The market eyes the all-time tradable high of 1.3670 as the major resistance level.
GbpUsd The cable reached major resistance at 2.0100 (the recent major target). The pair is under high pressure to correct down to the 1.9750 trend line support. As BOE rate hike rumors have not pushed the cable higher in early trading today, look for a pullback. For now, 1.9915 remains the first support with 2.0100 the first and major resistance.
UsdJpy Weaker momentum last week continued today as the pair moved lower on S&P's upgrade of Japan's debt rating, pushing the Yen further up. A move towards 117.20 is likely as the correction continues. We need to see a break above a strong resistance of 119.90 to eye any movements upwards.
UsdChf The downtrend is reinforced as the pair fell below 1.2031, a trend-line break, which is seen as bearish. To confirm a bigger move downward, we look for a close below 1.1983, which could setup a move towards the 1.1880 target. However, resistance is seen at 1.2153 and a close above that level may provide power to a short-term bullish move.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3699 K ||2.0385 T ||121.08 K ||1.2285 K |
|1.3670 K ||2.0134 K ||120.54 S ||1.2246 S |
|1.3631 M ||2.0098 S ||119.89 M ||1.2153 S |
|1.3601 ||2.0041 ||118.76 ||1.2065 |
|1.3522 M ||1.9917 M ||117.20 M ||1.2002 S |
|1.3480 S ||1.9762 T ||116.37 S ||1.1984 S |
|1.3412 S ||1.9591 K ||115.76 K ||1.1879 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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