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Saturday August 21, 2004 - 10:27:50 GMT
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Forex - Oil prices unsettle markets

Although US indicators are still relatively firm, there will be increased fears that high oil prices will damage the consumer and business spending outlook. In this environment, the Fed will be more reluctant to increase interest rates and this will tend to undermine the US currency. The latest capital flows data offered some relief, but private inflows are likely to be fragile. This will maintain the dollar's dependency on central bank inflows from Asia and flows should be strong enough to avert rapid dollar losses. Greater confidence over global growth would also hurt the Euro and the number of long speculative positions will also make it difficult for the Euro to advance. Nevertheless, despite intermittent rallies, the overall dollar trend is liable to be for depreciation.

US data releases

Consumer prices -0.1% Jul (+0.1% Jun)
Philadelphia Fed index +28.5 Aug (+36.1 Jul)
Jobless claims 331,000 week ending Aug 13 (334,000 prev)

Market analysis
The Euro/dollar market has found it difficult to find direction over the past week and this has encouraged a greater interest in other currencies, especially those with high yields. The Euro was not able to push above the 1.2385 level and it weakened back to 1.2320 in New York on Friday.

The US economic data was generally not supportive of the US currency, although it was far from disastrous. The New York manufacturing index fell sharply in August and the Philadelphia index dipped to 28.5 in August from 36.1 the previous month. There was also a decline in the orders and employment components while the prices index remained high. Industrial production rose by a subdued 0.4% in July. The August evidence is still tentative, but there will be concerns that the US economy will not be able to regain momentum. In this context, oil prices will remain under close scrutiny after a further increase this week. Prices have pushed to near US$50 p/b and there will be fears that the US economy will be damaged by prices at this level. September data will be crucial for the economy and currency.

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in July and there was also a moderate 0.1% rise in underlying prices. The dip was, however, generated by a dip in gasoline prices. Since then, oil prices have risen strongly again and the headline figure will be under upward pressure in the next monthly figure. The Fed will face a very difficult task in September if the economy is showing signs of weakening at the same time as inflation is rising. This combination would seriously damage the dollar.

The latest US capital inflows data offered relief with inflows rising to US$71.8bn in June from US$65.2b in May and there was a slight positive figure for equity inflows after three monthly declines. Wall Street has also managed to stage a recovery this week, but it will be difficult to secure a strong rebound and underlying dollar vulnerability will persist.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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