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Thursday April 26, 2007 - 08:27:27 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro hits 1.3666 on lackluster US data / Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes rates 25bp to 7.75%
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
US home sales rose to 2.6% at 858k units, however still below the market expectation of 888k units. Softer economic figures could now point to a possible rate cut by the Fed at the end of the year while the Eurozone continues with a stronger economic outlook. The expectation for the US economy seems to be too aggressive as indicators do not support high growth.
The New Zealand dollar is trading higher as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates 25 basis points to 7.75%. Also, the Australian dollar bounced back from Tuesday's low of 0.8235 on strength across all major currencies against the US dollar. The AUDUSD is trading back above 0.8300.
Today's most interesting chart is EURGBP. The pair has been range-bound for the past month, and shows signs of weakness: could not make a higher high since mid-march, has made lower lows, and the double-bottom formation signals a sell-off below 0.6750. The pair has pulled back in the past week; sell and confirm at 0.6750 to remain short.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
06.00 GBP Nationwide House prices seasonally adjusted (MoM) (APR)
06.00 GBP Nationwide House prices not seasonally adjusted (YoY) (APR)
06.00 EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
06.00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
06.10 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)
06.45 EUR French Business Confidence Indicator (APR)
06.45 EUR French Production Outlook Indicator (APR)
06.45 EUR French Own-Company Production Outlook (APR)
12.30 CAD Average Weekly Earnings (MoM) (FEB)
12.30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 21)
12.30 USD Continuing Claims (MAR)
14.00 USD Help Wanted Index (MAR)
14.30 CAD Bank of Canada Releases Monetary Policy Report
22.00 EUR French Unemployment Rate (MAR)
22.00 EUR French Unemployment Change (Thousands) (MAR)
The Risk Today:
EurUsd hit 1.3666 yesterday, our initial target. Should the pair revisit that level, look for a move to 1.3735 on the upper trend-line. The EURUSD would be in trouble around the 1.3540 level heading to 1.3500.
GbpUsd still remains in minor congestion. We keep the following: a break above 2.0101 could signal a move higher to 2.0230. For the bears, 1.9953 remains as a big support; a break could signal a move to 1.9863.
UsdJpy forms a continuation triangle in the past 5 days. Look for a break below 118.25 to 117.60. A push back into the upward channel would require the pair to break up above 118.90 and hopefully close above that level.
UsdChf made a new lower low at 1.1996. The pair may recover today, however, the trend is down. For bears, sell on a pullback around 1.2100 and confirm with a break below the trend-line at 1.1996. Bulls, resistance remains at 1.2130.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3705 S ||2.0108 S ||119.55 K ||1.2134 K |
|1.3684 S ||2.0085 S ||119.19 S ||1.2096 S |
|1.3661 M ||2.0049 M ||118.97 M ||1.2070 M |
|1.3640 ||2.0026 ||118.61 ||1.2032 |
|1.3617 M ||1.9990 M ||118.39 S ||1.2006 S |
|1.3595 S ||1.9967 S ||118.05 M ||1.1968 S |
|1.3573 S ||1.9931 K ||117.81 K ||1.1942 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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