User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday May 1, 2007 - 22:07:48 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - EUR/CHF Hits 8 Year High

DailyFX Fundamentals 05-01-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

• Further Dollar Strength Dependent Upon ADP and Challenger Layoff Report
• EUR/CHF Hits 8 Year High
• Australian Dollar: No Rate Hikes Expected

US Dollar

With European markets closed for May Day and Japanese traders out for Golden Week, most of the action in the foreign exchange market was concentrated in the US trading session. The drop in the Chicago PMI number yesterday followed by the soft Empire State and Philly Fed numbers earlier this month had most traders looking for a weaker ISM report. However instead of falling or remaining steady, manufacturing activity nationwide accelerated by the fastest pace in 11 months. The ISM manufacturing index jumped from 50.9 to 54.7 in April with the prices paid component surging 7.5 points to 73.0. The employment component also rebounded back into expansionary territory, which indicates that job losses in the manufacturing sector may be coming to an end. The unambiguously strong US ISM number triggered a sharp rally in the dollar with traders completely ignoring the 4.9 percent drop in pending home sales. As a lending indicator of the housing market, the number of contracts signed in March has a strong correlation with existing home sales in the months ahead, so be careful of today’s weakness becoming tomorrow housing market collapse. Looking ahead, the number one focus for traders is of course, the labor market. Tomorrow’s Challenger Layoff report, ADP Employment Survey and Thursday’s service sector ISM number will be closely examined for clues on how Friday’s non-farm payrolls release will fare. Job growth is important because as long as US consumers have jobs, they will be able to afford to pay their mortgages. The moment they have problems doing so, it becomes time to worry. Tomorrow’s data will instrumental for traders looking to lay on non-farm payroll positions. Expect some aggressive positioning on the back of any big data surprises.

Euro

Three consecutive days of lower highs and narrower trading ranges paint the picture of a currency pair that is having an exceptionally difficult time holding near its record highs. In our weekly Commitment of Traders report, we talked about how Euro net longs hit an all time high for a third week in a row and whenever sentiment is this one-sided, the risk of a reversal is extremely high. Technically, the appearance of RSI divergence on the daily charts and MACD turning negative in the same time frame also supports more Euro weakness. All we need to see now is softer Eurozone manufacturing PMI numbers and German unemployment figures. On Monday, we already had a sharp turn in German retail sales. At that time we reminded our readers that the EUR/USD peaked in December 2004 on back to back weakness in European data. Should the figures tomorrow disappoint as well, then a turn would be supported by fundamentals, technicals and sentiment. However it is important to point out that the current forecast is for stronger and not softer numbers. With German business confidence accelerating in the month of April, manufacturing conditions should have been decent. It remains to be seen whether or not this translates into an improvement in the labor market. Meanwhile EUR/CHF hit an 8 year high today. For a currency pair that typically range trades, the 500 point near vertical rally over the past 2 months has been one of the clearest trends in the foreign exchange market. Despite comments by the Swiss Finance Minister, demand for carry trades continues to drive the currency pair higher. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due for release tomorrow. Weakness in the currency should spur demand for Swiss exports, which would translate into stronger manufacturing sector activity.

British Pound

Mixed economic data has led to mixed performance in the British pound. The currency lost value against the US dollar but strengthened against the Euro and Japanese Yen. Even though manufacturing sector PMI was slightly weaker than expected, the CBI distributive trades survey hit the highest level since May 2004. The CBI index is a measure of short term trends in the UK retail and wholesale distribution sector, which makes it just as important as the PMI index. Meanwhile tomorrow we are expecting construction sector PMI, mortgage approvals and consumer credit. These numbers should confirm the overall health of the housing sector. As long as it remains stable and money supply continues to grow, the Bank of England is on track to raise interest rates later this month. This should keep the GBP/USD hovering close to 2.00. If data disappoints however, traders will begin to question whether the central bank will really follow through with the May 10th rate decision.

Japanese Yen

The rebound in the Dow has helped to push the yen crosses higher. With most Japanese traders out for Golden Week, the price action in currency pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/JPY was concentrated in the US trading session. Economic data released night supports yen weakness with cash earnings posting the fourth straight decline in March. Finance Minister Omi was on the wires today commenting on the need for the Yen to reflect fundamentals. There was some Yen buying on the back of his comments but the reaction did not last for long. The only piece of data due for release from Japan tonight is the monetary base, which is not a market mover. Expect the Yen pairs to continue to move in lockstep with the Dow.

Commodity Dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars all ended the day slightly weaker against the US dollar. All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision tonight. No changes to interest rates are expected, but after the surprise rate hike from New Zealand last week, there is a minor risk that the RBA could follow in their neighbor’s footsteps. Remember, whenever rates are left unchanged, there is no accompanying statement or press conference. Prime Minister Howard commented on the booming economy today despite the fact that manufacturing sector PMI dropped to a six month low. Meanwhile USD/CAD touched its seventh month low again today on the back of strong inflation figures. However the currency staged an impressive intraday reversal on the back of firmer US numbers and softer oil prices. The long wick in today’s USD/CAD candle suggests that we could see more strength in the currency pair tomorrow, but with no Canadian data due for release, that will continue to be dependent upon oil prices and US data.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105