Wednesday May 2, 2007 - 03:55:16 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for AUDUSDPrice:
Resistance: 0.8265 ... 0.8290 ... 0.8320 ... 0.8357
Support: 0.8233 ... 0.8200 ... 0.8174 ... 0.8146
This morningâ€™s losses favors the downside with break of 0.8233 signaling a move to 0.82 & below
This morningâ€™s break below the recent 0.8239-56 lows is weighing heavy on price. Indeed, we would tend to prefer not to try and pick out a correction higher and suspect a breach of 0.8233 would encourage follow-through quite quickly. Thus for a move bullish stance we require a move back above 0.8265 which could then cause a test of 0.8290-00. However, only above here would bring the upside back under pressure for a return to the 0.8320 & 0.8357 peaks.
Price has become fairly erratic and we therefore need to be flexible. A break back above 0.8337-57 would cause stronger follow-through higher to 0.8427-58 at least. (April 30th)
Daily Bearish: Loss of 0.8267-75 has seen a test of the 0.8233 low. This may see a temporary base but we feel it should break before long and trigger losses down to 0.8185 at least with potential for 0.8124-46 at least. Watch this support as it could hold. Next support is at 0.8100.
This morningâ€™s retest of the 0.8233 low looks more bearish and should soon trigger breach for 0.8185 and probably the 0.8100-24 area en route the 0.8062 corrective low. (May 2nd)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The structure is less clear now with a possible triangle structure under development. A break of 0.8233-0.8337 would break the extremes and trigger the next larger move. At that point we shall review the wave count.
We feel that Wave c should now progress to the 161.8% projection at 0.81465 at least and potentially to the 176.4% projection at 0.8124. We will follow this as cannot rule out further losses.
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