Wednesday May 2, 2007 - 12:44:48 GMT
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GVI Monthly Forex Poll Analysis Courtesy Cumino
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.3651(1.3364), av. responses 1.3721(1.3410), Adjusted boundaries 1.33-1.41(1.30-1.38).
GVI 48%(54%) COMPONENTS: 11%80%9%(13%66%21%). DRY INDEX: 68%(65%).
EUR GVI INDEX Neutral. The only possible comment is that neutrals are at a record high. Also considering (as I always do) the real boundaries i.e. the 3m term breakevens vol. cone the story is the same.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 119.53(117.79), av. responses 118.17(115.93), Adjusted boundaries 116-124(114-122).
GVI: 42%(40%) COMPONENTS: 18%80%2%(21%78%1%) DRY INDEX: 30%(25%).
USD bearish, but also here neutrals are very high (BTW applying the real term breakevens, neutrals are even higher). It isnâ€™t surprising considering the behaviour of implied and actual vols since last Survey.
In brief these EUR USD and USD JPY Surveys hardly can offer direct indications. If this is also the mirror of the market, i.e. without any view and few wish to be either a follower or a contrarian, the only advice could be to concentrate on other groups of minor currencies, especially where rate expectations, vols, balance of payments, positions, flows are showing divergences. It could be perhaps the case of Scandinavian and some East Europe currencies.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 65.71(65.94), av. responses 69.00(65.65), Adjusted boundaries 59-73(59-73).
GVI:55%(50%) COMPONENTS: 4%82%14%(6%89%5%). DRY INDEX:89%(56%)
Bullish. Dry Index very bullish.
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