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Thursday May 3, 2007 - 08:56:49 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro/Yen and Cable looking to go higher amid interest rate outlook
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
The Yen continued its decline against the Euro, hitting a record low at 163.60 as traders seek low borrowing costs to invest in higher yielding markets. This carry trade remains intact as outlook for no rate hikes by the Bank of Japan holds true and the ECB's possible rate hike this month. The yen has fallen 3.9% against the Euro since the beginning of the year.
The dollar is looking for a third day of gains today as ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers are rumored to be better than expected. Look for the Euro and the Dollar-Yen to trade to $1.3560 and Y120.40 today respectively. However, traders do remark that the Euro is still a buy.
Today's most interesting chart is AUDUSD. The pair has slipped from its high of 0.8395 on April 18 on short term US dollar strength. However, should the dollar slip again at the end of the week, look for a mini-trend back up to 0.8363. The pair is currently trading at 0.8237.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
08.30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (APR)
08.30 GBP PMI Services (survey) (APR)
09.00 EUR Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) (MAR)
09.00 EUR Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) (MAR)
10.00 USD Monster Employment Index
11.15 EUR ECB's Stark Speaking in Frankfurt
12.30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (1Q P) 13:30 1.1% vs 1.6%
12.30 USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q P) 13:30 3.8% vs 6.6%
12.30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 28) 13:30 317K vs 321K
12.30 USD Continuing Claims (Apr 21) 13:30
14.00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing (APR) 15:00 53.0 vs 52.4
17.35 EUR ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaking in Santa Fe 18:35
The Risk Today:
EurUsd: The pair is on a rebound off of 1.3560 and keeping above initial support at 1.3590. The Euro remains a buy for a target back up to 1.3680 and above. On the downside, any test of 1.3540 is very bearish.
GbpUsd: Look for the pair to clear the 1.9960 resistance for a further move up. The cable is well supported at 1.9865. A daily close below this level and keeping under 1.9960 would be very bearish.
UsdJpy Psychological support holds at 120.00, however it would take a break of the 119.52 support to go back into bearish territory. On the upside, look for resistance at 120.40, today's target assuming strong US economic figures.
UsdChf The pair slipped after hitting its trend-line resistance of 1.2190 yesterday. Initial resistance is at 1.2146, but the pair seems to find strong support at 1.2095. A break of either of these levels should indicate near-term direction.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3775 T ||2.0388 T ||120.88 T ||1.2190 T |
|1.3685 S ||2.0133 K ||120.37 S ||1.2165 S |
|1.3612 M ||2.0080 M ||120.10 K ||1.2144 M |
|1.3605 ||1.9912 ||120.15 ||1.2112 |
|1.3560 S ||1.9865 M ||120.00 S ||1.2052 M |
|1.3540 K ||1.9576 S ||119.40 S ||1.2031 S |
|1.3458 S ||1.9507 T ||118.12 K ||1.1990 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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