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Friday May 4, 2007 - 12:37:48 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
USD holding steady ahead of payrolls data
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
After better than expected ISM non-manufacturing figures yesterday, the dollar gain some ground against the Euro and the Pound. In early trading today, the euro and cable hit 1.3535 and 1.9844 respectively. Labor market figures today are the key to the greenback's survival. Furthermore, traders expect the ECB to hike rates in June and possibly once more by the fourth quarter. Should data from the US be surprisingly strong, look for the Euro to correct to deep levels such as 1.3300, keeping in mind though that the trend is still up, and 1.3800 is not far from sight given the interest rate outlook.
The Australian dollar did not find big buyers at the 0.8280 level and instead broke down through the April 9 low of 0.8233 on the recent US dollar strength and neutral reports by the RBA which included indications that rates should remain unchanged for the remainder of the year. Should the carry trade still be intact, then the recent dip in the currency is a buy set-up.
Today's most interesting chart is GBPJPY. The pair has been in an uptrend since the start of 2006 and has not looked back. The recent correction in the beginning of 2007 seems to start a head and shoulders formation. In this is true, look for new highs in the pair, followed by a bigger sell-off later in the year. For now, it's a strong buy to our target of 241.54, which would be a full 100% retracement of the correction.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09.00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) 0.5% vs 0.3%
09.00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR) 2.3% vs 1.2%
09.00 USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (APR) 100k vs 180k
12.30 USD Unemployment Rate (APR) 4.5% vs 4.4%
12.30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (APR) -12K vs -16K
12.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (APR) 0.3% vs 0.3%
12.30 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (APR)
12.30 USD Average Weekly Hours (APR) 33.9 vs 33.9
13.10 CAD BoC's Dodge Speaks on Floating Exchange Rates in Montreal
13.45 USD Fed's Geithner Speaks on Global Economy in Montreal
14.00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (APR) 57.3 vs 67.3
15.20 USD Fed's Hoenig Speaks at Conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico
16.00 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Philip Lowe Speaks
The Risk Today:
EurUsd: Testing the 1.3540 support in early trading, the pair has slipped for three days straight from recent highs. 38.2% retracement levels are found at 1.3490, and key support of the pair. Resistance holds at 1.3623.
GbpUsd: On the downside, the pair must break 1.9823 for a clearer indication that 1.9591 is the next level down. For now, the pair is still a buy at 1.9950 for a move up to 2.0076, Tuesday's high.
UsdJpy: the pair met strong resistance at 119.50 rumored to be an options barrier whilst the Japanese are still on vacation. Support is found at 119.90 and clear resistance at 120.54. A daily close above this level is a strong buy that is good to go to 121.65.
UsdChf We find a lot of resistance at the upper trend-line. We would like to see a break and close above 1.2190 to be bullish. For now, the pair is a sell at 1.2120 for a move to the lower trend-line at 1.1995.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3681 K ||2.0143 K ||122.20 K ||1.2356 S |
|1.3622 S ||2.0075 S ||121.80 S ||1.2288 S |
|1.3578 M ||1.9972 M ||120.50 M ||1.2190 T |
|1.3559 ||1.9864 ||120.31 ||1.2154 |
|1.3535 S ||1.9825 M ||120.00 S ||1.2095 M |
|1.3458 K ||1.9730 S ||118.90 S ||1.2065 S |
|1.3410 S ||1.9507 T ||118.12 K ||1.1992 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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John M. Bland, MBA
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