Monday May 7, 2007 - 05:25:27 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for EURUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.3609 ... 1.3635 ... 1.3655 ... 1.3681
Support: 1.3575 ... 1.3534 ... 1.3510 ... 1.3481
While 1.3622-35 caps we feel the bias is still lower for a move back below 1.3534
The 1.3536 support held perfectly and has generated a recovery that is approaching the 1.3622-29 target. Indeed, we should allow for a small breach for around 1.3635-40 but feel this should cap. Thus only break above 1.3640 would take price back to 1.3681 which could see a correction again. Above 1.3681 extends to 1.3737 at least. Next resistance is around 1.3799-1.3816.
While 1.3540-70 supports the uptrend is not broken and should allow follow through above 1.3681 to 1.3759, then 1.3831 with ultimate targets at 1.3932 and probably 1.4016. (May 2nd)
The recovery from 1.3534 is in line with expectations and we now need to see the 1.3622-35 area cap. From here a move back below 1.3575-80 would generate the next leg lower that should retest the 1.3534 low and should cause a small pullback. Clean break below 1.3534 would trigger additional losses to 1.3510 and 1.3481 at leastâ€¦ take a little care here but we feel that the 1.3430-35 area should be the next larger target.
So far so good â€“ with the 1.3635 resistance now needing to hold to cause a retest and break of Fridayâ€™s 1.3534 low. Once seen it should cause losses to 1.3430-35 en route the 1.3275 level â€“ max 1.3203. (May 7th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We feel the break of the 1.3560 low is a stronger sign of losses. However, we note the 38.2% expansion of the 1.3560-1.3622 correction at 1.3536 and we must be aware of the chance of a second rally towards the 1.3622-29 area. If seen this would provide a good selling opportunity for losses to wards the 1.3430-40 pivot support â€“ which is also where Wave iii will have projected by 261.8%.
Direct loss of 1.3536 would confirm direct losses to the same support area.
The expanded flat looks likely and this Wave efc must remain below 1.3635 to keep the larger Wave (b) decline intact. Back above 1.3640 would return us to the last leg higher to 1.3932-1.4016.
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