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Monday May 7, 2007 - 12:27:07 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-May-2007....1200 GMT

Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below

USD-CHF @ 1.2100/04.…… No trades currently
R: 1.2130 / 1.2160
S: 1.2090 / 1.2050 / 1.2033
USD-CHF tried to break above its big Resistance of 1.2180 last week but was unsuccessful and has fallen back subsequently. As such, the pair is expected to once again in the range of 1.2180 on the upside and 1.2000 on the downside, with a directional move coming only on a break of this range. If 1.2180 is broken on the upside then there could be a rally towards 1.2285 (high Apr-07) subsequently. On the downside a break below 1.2000 could lead to a fall towards 1.1880, the 2006 low. Currently the pair is in the middle of the 1.2180 and 1.2000 range. A breakout is not expected this week also.

Today the pair has been sideways so far. Now the Resistance is at 1.2130 and then at 1.2178, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 1.2090 and then at 1.2050. The bias at the moment is neutral and a big rally towards 1.2160 (if seen) should be used to sell. Alternatively, a big dip (if seen) towards 1.2020 should be used to buy. No trades currently.

GBP-USD @ 1.9954/59…...Buy a dip
R: 1.9980 / 2.0020
S: 1.9940 / 1.9900
GBP-USD has been correcting since the pair topped out at 2.0134 (18-Apr) and has hit a low of 1.9844 (04-May) subsequently. However, the pair has moved above Friday’s high, raising suspicion that the consolidation may end. However, for that to be confirmed, the pair would need to move above 2.0050, which falls on the trendline on the 4-Hourly, joining the highs of 2.0134 (18-Apr) and 2.0077 (01-May). In the interim, a move above 1.9980 would lead to a rally towards 2.0050. On the downside a break below 1.9850 would lead to a decline towards 1.9700 in the week.

For today, the Resistance for the pair is at 1.9980 and 2.0020. On the downside the Support is at 1.9940 and then at 1.9900. A fall towards 1.9900 could be used to buy with a stop below 1.9850 as a weekly trade, targeting 2.0050.

Limit buy order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.9900, SL 1.9840, TP 2.0050. As soon as the market trades 1.9950 after entry, bring SL up to 1.9860.

See BOE Interest rate and UK Libor at

AUD-USD @ 0.8251/55…….Buy a dip
R: 0.8260 / 0.8276 / 0.8300
S: 0.8215 / 0.8190 / 0.8170
AUD-USD ended with big losses last week after the RBA did not increase interest rates and the pair hit a low of 0.8170. The pair has bounced back sharply today and but the pair would find strong Resistance this week at 0.8300, which comes in on the trendline joining the highs of 0.8396 (18-April) and 0.8333 (01-May), on the 4-Hourly charts. A move above this trendline could take the pair back towards 0.8396.
On the downside a break below 0.8170 could lead to a dip towards 0.8100. Fundamentally, the Aussie Labour force is the important data, which is coming out this week. See chart at

Today the pair has been stable after the sharp rally, which was seen earlier today and has hit a high of 0.8263. Now for today the Resistance is at 0.8274, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Supports are at 0.8220 and then at 0.8190. A dip to 0.8190 should be used to buy with a stop below 0.8170 as a weekly trade.

Happy Trading!


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