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Monday May 7, 2007 - 13:40:06 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (7 May 2007)



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3625 level and was supported around the $1.3590 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.3680 to $1.3535. A few factors contributed to the pair’s gains today. First, French presidential candidate Sarkozy won the run-off election in France this weekend and even though he was critical of the European Central Bank during his campaign, he was less critical than leftist candidate Royal. Much of the criticism that is periodically levied against the ECB originates in France and Sarkozy’s conservative government may change that dynamic. Second, Ecofin finance ministers reaffirmed the ECB’s independence saying it is “an independent organ.” Third, ECB President Trichet remained hawkish in comments saying “Let's continue to be fully aware about the risks. Price stability is necessary for a global growth.” The ECB convenes on Thursday and is not expected to tighten monetary policy until next month. Fourth, German March manufacturing orders rose 2.4% m/m and 9.9% y/y. In U.S. news, most traders expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. April non-farm payrolls tally may play into the Fed’s policy statement and dealers await any signal from the Fed that it is moving closer to a neutral policy bias. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3580 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥119.75 level and was capped around the ¥120.20 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥117.60 to ¥120.45. Liquidity returned to normal following last week’s Golden Week holidays in Japan and China. Minutes from Bank of Japan’s March Policy Board meeting were released overnight and some members indicated the central bank must better communicate its intention to raise interest rates gradually. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui is scheduled to speak on Thursday and any indication from him that rates could move higher despite recent deflationary pressures may lead to further yen appreciation. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.58% to close at ¥17,669.83. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥119.35 level. The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥163.35 level and was supported around the ¥162.95 level. The British pound and Swiss franc moved marginally lower vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥239.15 and ¥99.00 levels, respectively. In Chinese news, data released in China today saw May Day holiday retail sales climb 15.5% y/y.



The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9975 level and was supported around the $1.9930 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.9590 to $2.0130. A survey published by CBI today reported that manufacturing business confidence improved across all regions of the United Kingdom for the first time since February 1995. Most traders expect Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to tighten interest rates by +25bps on Thursday. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9860 level. The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6825 level and was supported around the ₤0.6810 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2080 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2110 level. Today’s range was limited on account of the bank holiday in the U.K. and pending interest rate decisions in the U.S., eurozone, and U.K. this week. Traders await the release of the Swiss April unemployment rate. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2130 level. The euro and British pound lost marginal ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6440 and CHF 2.4110 levels, respectively.

A$

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.8260 level and was supported around the $0.8205 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from $0.8030 to $0.8390. Data released in Australia overnight saw April job advertisements climb 3.5% m/m and 27.1% y/y while the April NAB business confidence index rose to +13 from +10 in March. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8165 level.



C$

The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.1005 level and was capped around the $1.1075 level. Today’s intraday low was the pair’s weakest print since 13 June 2006. April housing starts data will be released tomorrow. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1150 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 690.65 level and was supported around the $686.90 level. The intraday weakness of the U.S. dollar contributed to the pair’s gains and traders await the FOMC’s monetary policy statement on Wednesday. Silver gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the US$ 13.57 level and was supported around the $13.44 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for June delivery tested bids around the US$ 61.10 level and was capped around the $62.05 level. The price was pressured lower by a few factors including reduced geopolitical risk and a report that Nigeria’s Forcados oil fields will reopen this month or next month after being closed for one year. This could add about 380,000 barrels per day to global output.

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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